Abu Dhabi Non‑Oil Sector Leads Emirate’s 3.4 % GDP Growth in Q1 2025

Key Takeaways

• Abu Dhabi’s economy expanded 3.4 % year-over-year in Q1 2025

• Non‑oil sector surged 6.1 %, now accounting for 56.2 % of GDP

• Manufacturing, construction, finance, trade, and retail are key drivers

• UAE-wide GDP forecast upward: 4.4 %–5.1 % in 2025

• Implications for investors: diversified growth supports resilience

 

Saudi‑Style Economic Diversification Shows Results

For the first quarter ending March 31, 2025, the Statistics Centre – Abu Dhabi (SCAD) reported GDP at AED 291 billion, marking a 3.4 % increase compared to Q1 2024. The non‑oil economy drove this growth, expanding 6.1 % YoY, and now represents 56.2 % of total GDP.

Sectoral Contributions

• Manufacturing: Leading non-oil contributor (~9.8 % of GDP), up 5 %

• Trade (wholesale & retail): Grew 3.6 %, contributing 5.5 % to GDP 

• Construction, finance, logistics, and real estate also posted strong gains

 

Forecasts Point to Stronger UAE Growth

Projections for the broader UAE economy align with Abu Dhabi’s momentum:

• Central Bank of the UAE forecasts 4.4 % real GDP growth in 2025, rising to 5.4 % in 2026 

• World Bank upgraded UAE growth outlook to 4.6 % in 2025, citing robust non‑oil activity

• Institute of Chartered Accountants in England & Wales (ICAEW) sees growth of 5.1 % in 2025, with tourism and finance as core drivers 

Additionally, UAE’s Minister of Economy projected national GDP growth up to 6 % in 2025, fueled by tech, renewables, trade, and infrastructure investments.

 

What This Means for Investors & Markets

 

Diversification Resilience

The strong non‑oil performance—led by manufacturing, trade, construction, and finance—highlights reduced dependency on hydrocarbons and better exposure to global tourism and trade cycles.

Market & Investment Implications

• Real estate and construction gains support positive returns on development projects

• Growing manufacturing and finance sectors drive demand for industrial and commercial assets

• Expansion in wholesale, retail, and tourism bolsters consumer confidence and operational activity

Outlook for Abu Dhabi & UAE

The emirate’s continued diversification enhances macroeconomic stability, positioning it well for investment and long-term growth—benefiting both local and international investors.

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