90,000 Units by Year-End: Opportunity or Oversupply? The Truth About Dubai's 2025-2032 Delivery Pipeline - Part 1

The headlines are everywhere: "90,000 units to flood Dubai's property market by year-end!" Analysts warn of an impending oversupply crisis. Investment forums buzz with panic. Some predict price crashes of 20-30%. Others counsel waiting on the sidelines until "the dust settles."

But here's what most analysts aren't telling you—the 90,000 number is fundamentally flawed.

After spending months diving deep into Dubai Land Department data via DXB Interact, cleaning erroneous categories, and building a comprehensive analytical model, I can tell you with confidence: the "oversupply crisis" narrative is built on incomplete data and dangerously oversimplified assumptions.

What if everything you've heard about Dubai's supply situation is wrong?

In this article, I'll show you exactly why conventional analysis fails, what the data actually reveals when properly analyzed, and—most importantly—give you access to the same interactive model I use to advise fäm Properties' most sophisticated clients.

Because in real estate, the difference between those who react to headlines and those who analyze data is measured in millions of dirhams.

The Fatal Flaws in Conventional Supply Analysis

The Data Contamination Problem

Every analysis starts with a number: 90,000 units scheduled for delivery by end of 2025. It's repeated so often it's become gospel. Lets start with this number, we are already in November and what's still due to handover is more like 42,000 units, in addition there's a critical problem nobody talks about.

The numbers used are often contaminated.

The Dubai Land Department's delivery pipeline data includes far more than pure residential apartments and villas. Hidden within that 90,000 figure are other categories which are not appropriate for analysis of the residential market, for example:

• Hotel apartments and serviced residences designed for short-term tourist accommodation, not residential living

• Staff accommodation blocks built for labor camps and corporate housing

• Commercial components of mixed-use projects that have no place in residential supply calculations

When you actually do the work of backing out these erroneous categories—something most analysts either can't or won't do—the picture changes dramatically.

The real residential supply figure? Approximately 42,000 units in 2025, that's a significant unit difference right off the top. And we haven't even started the real analysis yet.

Breaking Down the Contamination an worked example:

The Developer Delay Reality Check

Here's where conventional analysis often makes its second critical error: it assumes every developer delivers on time.

If you've been in Dubai real estate for more than a year, you're probably laughing right now. Because in 25 years of this market's modern history, that's not the most common outcome. Not even close.

Historical delivery patterns tell the real story:

• Average project delays across Dubai: 6-18 months

• Percentage of projects delivering exactly on schedule: 40-60% (being generous)

• Peak delivery periods (like Q4) show even higher delay rates

• First-time developers and complex projects: delays of 12-24 months are common

Yet every market analysis I read treats the delivery schedule as if it were carved in stone. "90,000 units in 2025!" No qualifications. No probability adjustments. Just certainty where none exists.

What this means in practice:

If we apply a conservative 1-year delay to the delivery schedule (and historical data suggests this is actually optimistic for many projects), the immediate supply pressure doesn't hit all at once in late 2025. Instead, it spreads across 2026-2028.

This isn't a tsunami—it's a wave with time to absorb.

The questions analysts should ask but don't:

• Which developers have track records of on-time delivery?

• What's the actual construction progress status right now?

• Are all permits and approvals in place?

• What's the current labor and material availability situation?

• How many projects are already behind their original schedules?

Without answering these questions, you're analyzing a fantasy, not a market.

"The 90,000 figure is flawed to start with and to compound those issues the pundits assume every developer delivers on time. In 25 years of Dubai real estate, its not a likely scenario. Yet every analysis treats it as certainty." — Dean Darby, fäm Properties

The Buyer-to-Seller Assumption: The Industry's Biggest Oversimplification

Even if we accept the supply numbers at face value (we shouldn't, but let's play along), there's an even bigger flaw in conventional analysis. It's an assumption so fundamental that most analysts don't even realize they're making it:

Every delivered unit becomes market supply. This is categorically false. Yet it underpins virtually every "oversupply crisis" prediction you'll read.

The Flawed Linear Model

Here's what analysts assume:

• 42,000 units delivered = 42,000 units competing for buyers

• Every buyer becomes either a seller immediately upon handover

• All units hit the market simultaneously

• Supply equals instant competition for existing inventory

Here's reality: When a unit is handed over to a buyer, one of three things happens. Not all three equally, but definitively one of these three paths:

Understanding the Model Variables

This three-way split is the foundation of accurate supply analysis. I've translated it into four precise variables that my interactive model uses:

The math is simple:

• 42,000 units scheduled

• 30% owner-occupied = 12,600 units removed from supply

• 40% listed for rent = 16,800 units rental supply only

• 30% listed for resale = 12,600 units sales supply

Suddenly, 90,000 which is really more like 80,000 for the whole year and 42,000 units scheduled for the remainder of 2025, becomes 25,800 units of actual sales competition. That's a huge reduction from the headline number.

And we still haven't factored in delays, which further spread this supply over multiple years.

This is why headlines lie and models matter.

The Demand Side Blind Spot: Not All Residents Need Homes

Supply analysis is only half the equation. Yet when it comes to demand, the oversimplifications get even worse.

The Population Growth Myth

Open any market report and you'll see some variation of this logic:

"Dubai's population is growing by 200,000 people per year. With 86,000 units delivered, that's only 0.43 units per person. Clear undersupply!"

Or conversely:

"Dubai's population growth is slowing. With 86,000 units delivered, there won't be enough buyers. Clear oversupply!"

Both approaches are fatally flawed because they treat population as if it directly translates to housing demand.

It doesn't.

The Critical Variables Analysts Miss

Not every person needs a separate home. Not every new resident wants to buy. Not every household has the means to purchase property.

Here are the demand-side variables that proper analysis must include:

New Residents per Month

The baseline: In 2024, Dubai welcomed approximately 17,000 new residents per month according to Dubai Statistics Center data. That's 204,000 people annually.

But is this sustainable? Will it accelerate or decelerate?

The model approach: Rather than using year-over-year population growth percentages (which obscure the actual numbers), I use the concrete monthly figure of new residents. You can adjust this up or down based on your outlook:

• Optimistic scenario: 20,000/month (240,000/year)

• Baseline scenario: 17,000/month (204,000/year)

• Conservative scenario: 12,000/month (144,000/year)

This gives you demand forecasting based on actual household formation, not abstract growth rates.

Residents per Household

Not every person needs a separate home. Dubai's household formation patterns vary dramatically:

• Singles sharing accommodation: 2-4 people per unit (common among young professionals and lower-income workers)

• Nuclear families: 3-4 people per unit (two parents + children)

• Multi-generational households: 6-8 people per villa (extended families, common in South Asian and Arab cultures)

• Corporate housing: 10-50 employees in purpose-built accommodation

The average across Dubai: 2.5 people per household.

This means 17,000 new residents per month = 6,800 households needing accommodation.

Not 17,000 units. Not 8,500 units. Exactly 6,800 households.

This distinction is everything.

Who Want to Rent

Here's where demand analysis diverges from supply completely.

New arrivals to Dubai don't immediately buy property. Shocking, I know.

The reality:

• First-time expatriates: 70-80% rent for 1-2 years before considering purchase

• Transient workers on short contracts: 90%+ rent indefinitely

• Corporate transferees: Often provided housing or prefer rental flexibility

• Young professionals: Lack down payment capital, prefer renting

Model default: 70% of new residents prefer renting (at least initially).

This means of those 6,800 households needing accommodation:

• 4,760 are looking to rent

• 2,040 are looking to buy

The rental demand and sales demand are completely separate markets. Conflating them produces nonsense analysis.

Who Want to Buy

The inverse of rental demand, auto-calculated in the model: 30% of new residents want to purchase property.

Who are these buyers?

• Established expatriates upgrading from rentals

• Golden Visa seekers (AED 2M+ property purchases)

• High-net-worth individuals seeking tax-free asset holdings

• Investors (both local and international)

• Returning citizens and GCC nationals

This 30% (2,040 households per month at baseline) creates your actual buyer demand.

But even this overstates new-to-market demand, because many buyers are existing residents upgrading or relocating—they're selling one property to buy another.

The Upgrade and Relocation Cycle

Here's what makes Dubai's market even more complex: substantial demand comes from within the existing resident population.

Every month, thousands of transactions involve:

• Marina residents upgrading to larger Marina apartments

• Downtown renters finally buying their first property

• JVC owners moving to Dubai Hills villas

• Business Bay investors rebalancing portfolios

These are existing residents who already have accommodation. They're not adding to demand—they're recycling it through the market.

Bottom line: Demand analysis requires understanding not just how many new people arrive, but how they form households, what they can afford, and whether they're renting or buying.

Raw population figures tell you almost nothing about actual market dynamics.

Introducing the Interactive Supply-Demand Model

After analyzing market reports for years and watching investors make decisions based on fundamentally flawed assumptions, I reached a breaking point.

Every analysis used static numbers. Every forecast ignored variables that matter. Every headline chose drama over data.

So I built something better.

Why I Built This Tool

The problem wasn't a lack of data—Dubai Land Department publishes detailed delivery schedules, transaction volumes, and registration data. Dubai Statistics Center tracks population flows. Developer disclosure requirements provide unit-level information.

The problem was methodology.

Existing analyses either:

1. Oversimplified to the point of uselessness ("90,000 units vs. population growth")

2. Used proprietary black-box models that required institutional subscriptions

3. Failed to separate rental from sales demand

4. Ignored buyer behavior variables entirely

5. Assumed on-time delivery despite all historical evidence

My solution (built in conjunction with DXB Interact): Create an interactive model that puts investors in control of the assumptions.

Not my assumptions. Not institutional consensus assumptions. YOUR assumptions.

Because you're the one writing the check. You're the one exposed to the risk. You deserve tools that let you test your own thesis, not just accept someone else's conclusion.

Model Architecture: The Variables That Actually Matter

The model integrates eight core variables—four on the supply side, four on demand—to produce year-by-year projections through 2032.

Here's exactly how it works:

SUPPLY SIDE VARIABLES

DEMAND SIDE VARIABLES

How the Model Calculates Market Balance

Once you set all eight variables, the model runs these calculations for every year from 2025 through 2032:

SUPPLY CALCULATION:

1. Takes scheduled delivery data from DLD

2. Shifts timeline by completion delay months

3. Multiplies by "% Listed for Resale" to get actual sales supply

4. Multiplies by "% Listed for Rent" to get rental supply

DEMAND CALCULATION:

1. Takes "New Residents per Month" × 12 months

2. Divides by "Residents per Household" to get household formation

3. Multiplies by "% Who Want to Buy" to get buyer demand

4. Multiplies by "% Who Want to Rent" to get renter demand

BALANCE CALCULATION:

• Sales Market Balance: Buyer Demand - Sales Supply

• Rental Market Balance: Renter Demand - Rental Supply

• Negative numbers = Shortage (demand exceeds supply)

• Positive numbers = Surplus (supply exceeds demand)

Visual Outputs: What the Charts Show You

The model produces three key visualizations:

Chart 1: Variable Control Panel Shows all eight sliders with current settings, allowing real-time adjustment

Chart 2: Deliveries by Year (2025-2032) Bar chart showing how many units will be delivered each year after applying your delay assumptions

Chart 3: Net Market Balance (Surplus/Shortage) Dual-bar chart showing:

• Pink/Red bars: Rental market balance (negative = shortage)

• Blue/Cyan bars: Sales market balance (negative = shortage)

• Green zones: Years where both markets simultaneously show surplus

This visual instantly tells you:

• Which years have too much supply (positive bars)

• Which years have too little supply (negative bars)

• Whether rental or sales markets are tighter

• When the market shifts from shortage to surplus and back

Example Scenario: Conservative Assumptions

Let me walk you through exactly what the model shows when using conservative assumptions (the default settings):

INPUTS:

 

OUTPUTS FROM CHART  (Deliveries by Year):

After applying the 1-year delay to the delivery pipeline:

Key insight 1: Even with conservative 1-year delays, the model shows that the bulk of current pipeline deliveries concentrate in the 2027-2029 period, not 2025.

 

Key insight 2: The rental market shows persistent shortage across ALL years in the projection. Even at peak delivery, rental demand exceeds rental supply by 18,000-23,000 units. This supports continued rental yield strength and explains why landlords hold properties long-term.

Key insight 3: Even with conservative assumptions and peak delivery years, the sales market shows only a brief 2-year period (2027-2028) with modest surplus. The maximum surplus is 3,500 units in 2028—representing roughly 3.6% of peak delivery volume. This is healthy market correction territory, not crisis.

By 2029, the market returns to balance. By 2030-2032, shortages return to current levels as the delivery pipeline empties faster than population growth creates new demand.

What These Results Actually Mean

Let me be crystal clear about what this conservative scenario reveals:

The "oversupply crisis" narrative claims: 86,000-90,000 units will flood the market, creating massive price crashes and years of surplus inventory.

The model shows: When you properly account for delays, owner-occupiers, landlords holding for rent, household formation, and renter vs. buyer preferences, the market experiences:

• A near-perfect balance in 2027 (700-unit surplus = 0.8% of delivery)

• A modest surplus in 2028 (3,500 units = healthy correction, not crash)

• A rapid return to shortage by 2029-2030 as the pipeline empties

The rental market never shows surplus at all—maintaining shortages of 18,000-58,000 units throughout the entire projection period.

This isn't crisis. This is a market cycle behaving exactly as healthy real estate markets should: brief equilibrium periods during peak supply, followed by renewed growth as demographics outpace completions.

Access the Model: See It Yourself

I can describe the model's logic all day, but the real power is in your hands.

Visit: Dubai Marina Pro

What you'll be able to do:

1. Adjust all eight variables to match YOUR assumptions about the market

2. See real-time recalculation of year-by-year outcomes through 2032

3. Test pessimistic, realistic, and optimistic scenarios side-by-side

4. View visual charts showing deliveries and market balance

5. Download your scenario results for investment planning

What's included:

• Full interactive model access

• Real-time chart generation

• Scenario saving functionality

• Data source transparency (DLD, Dubai Statistics Center, historical patterns)

• Regular updates as new delivery and transaction data becomes available

No paywalls. No gates. Just data and the tools to analyze it properly.

"I built this model because I was tired of seeing investors make million-dirham decisions based on headlines and oversimplified analysis. Now you can see the real story and test your own assumptions."

— Dean Darby, Data Driven Innovator & Senior Sales Director, fäm Properties Marina (in conjunction with DXB Interact)

We've established why conventional analysts fail to account for owner-occupiers, delays, and household formation in their supply forecasts. Continue reading to see the interactive model that corrects these oversights, giving you the precise, data-driven strategy needed to maximize gains in the current market cycle: 90,000 Units by Year-End: Opportunity or Oversupply? The Truth About Dubai's 2025-2032 Delivery Pipeline - Part 2