Dubai Real Estate Market Report — Q4, 2023

Dubai Real Estate Market Report – Q4 2023

Dubai signed off on 2023 with the busiest fourth quarter it has ever recorded. Across all property types, 35,533 transactions went through in Q4 2023 for a total of AED 122.94 billion — both the largest fourth-quarter count and the largest fourth-quarter value in the ten-year series stretching back to 2014. Market-wide, the median came to rest at AED 1,442/sqft.

Zooming in on the apartment, villa and commercial segments that account for the bulk of the trade, deals climbed +22% versus Q4 2022 to reach 34,195, while their pooled value jumped +33% to AED 93.97 billion. Growth reached across the board but was uneven in shape: apartments supplied the volume, villas supplied the value, and — as the rental data further down makes clear — rents kept rising even while the number of registered contracts dropped.

Headline figures

Year-on-year performance by category

Apartments drove the expansion. The segment recorded 26,078 sales — a +21% gain year on year and the strongest Q4 tally in the ten-year series, roughly 4,596 deals ahead of the previous year. Prices, though, headed in the opposite direction: the median eased -4% to AED 1,603/sqft and the typical ticket softened -6% to AED 1,266,072. Put differently, peak demand did not lift per-unit prices, which held total apartment value to a more modest +14% at AED 51.45 billion. Even after this year's slip, apartment values per square foot remain +32% above their 2014 baseline.

Villas were where the capital concentrated. Their pace of sales kept step with apartments, rising +21% to 6,999 sales — another ten-year Q4 peak, 1,221 above the year before — but value is what stands out: it surged +67% to AED 40.53 billion. Both price measures pulled in the same direction, with the median hitting AED 1,128/sqft, up +11% and the highest Q4 figure in the ten-year series, while the median ticket advanced +20% to AED 3,100,000. Villa pricing now sits +48% over its 2014 base — outpacing the +32% apartments have gained and far exceeding commercial's +4%.

Commercial property, only a sliver of the market at 1,118 deals, expanded quickest of the lot. Volume climbed +52% and value +79% to AED 1.98 billion, as the median price rose +33% to AED 1,234/sqft — itself a ten-year Q4 high — and the median ticket gained +34% to AED 1,197,480. The base is small, but the trajectory is clear and tracks the broader market's momentum.

Every category, including plots and buildings

Land was the quarter's understated giant. Only 1,334 plot sales took place, yet they carried AED 28.75 billion in value at a median ticket of AED 4,950,000 — which is why the all-property total of AED 122.94 billion sits so far above the AED 93.97 billion logged across apartments, villas and commercial. That land value is also part of why Palm Jebel Ali headed the area value ranking. A further AED 222.11 million came from four whole-building sales.

Primary versus resale

Developers led the way. Off-plan primary sales made up 60% of segment volume and 66% of value — 20,385 deals worth AED 61.64 billion. The remainder came from resale, at 13,810 transactions and AED 32.33 billion, a 40% share of volume that narrows to a 34% share of value — indicating that secondary-market deals leaned toward cheaper price points than new launches.

Where the activity was

Geography broke along the same value-against-volume divide. Palm Jebel Ali topped the value chart with AED 12.05 billion, ahead of Marsa Dubai (AED 8.31 billion) and Palm Jumeirah (AED 5.59 billion), with Business Bay and Al Merkadh not far off at AED 5.10 billion and AED 5.02 billion. Volume gathered elsewhere: Al Barsha South Fourth saw the most deals at 4,033, followed by Al Merkadh (2,989) and Business Bay (2,738). Business Bay, Marsa Dubai and Al Merkadh appear on both lists — the market's reliable all-rounders.

Rental market

The leasing market produced the quarter's starkest contradiction: many fewer contracts, at noticeably higher rents. New apartment registrations dropped -44.21% to 34,186 and renewals -33.31% to 40,970, and yet the median new-lease apartment rent rose +22.45% to AED 60,000 and rent per square foot advanced +25.40% to AED 79. Villas and commercial followed suit — new villa leases fell -39.58% while their median rent gained +18.52% to AED 160,000, and new commercial contracts slid -40.52% as rents rose +11.11% to AED 100,000. Renewal rents increased more modestly across the board, sparing sitting tenants the steeper price of relocating.

Supply

Supply tilted decisively toward what is still to come. Developers launched 25,051 units across 88 projects while completing handovers of 12,484 units from 44 finished projects — close to two units launched for each one delivered, a ratio of 2.0 and a net 12,567 more units introduced than completed. The pipeline is being topped up faster than it is drained, in keeping with the record off-plan demand of the quarter.

Selected launches

• Azizi Riviera 61 – Al Merkadh (Azizi), 242 units
• Sobha Seahaven - Tower C – Marsa Dubai (Sobha), 204 units
• Damac Hills (2) - Park Greens 1 – Madinat Hind 4 (Damac), 216 units
• Arabian Ranches -La Avenida I – Wadi Al Safa 6 (Emaar), 17 units
• Nadine Residences 2 – Jabal Ali First (London Gate), 102 units
• Skyhills Residences - 1 – Al Barsha South 2 (The Cayan Group), 1,809 units
• Le Parc Homes Ii – Al Barsha South Fourth (Kbw), 13 units
• Alicante Villas – Al Hebiah Fourth (Dubai Sports City), 14 units
• Nas3 – Al Barsha South 3 (Rabdan), 288 units
• Hillside Residences 2 - F – Jabal Ali First (Wasl), 280 units
• … and 78 further projects

Selected completions

• The Eugene Townhouses – Wadi Al Safa 3 (Tanmiyat), 47 units
• Avanos – Al Barsha South Fourth (Myra), 96 units
• Binghatti Nova – Al Barsha South Fourth (Binghatti), 211 units
• Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum City-District One, Phase Iii, Residences 12 – Al Merkadh (Meydan), 315 units
• Belgravia Square B – Al Barsha South Fourth (Ellington), 229 units
• Al Helal Al Zahaby 3 – Warsan Fourth (Al Helal Al Zahaby), 67 units
• Cherrywoods – Al Yelayiss 1 (Meraas), 378 units
• Wilton Park Residences Ii – Al Merkadh (Ellington), 321 units
• Azizi Riviera 19 – Al Merkadh (Azizi), 208 units
• Azizi Riviera 21 – Al Merkadh (Azizi), 158 units
• … and 34 further projects

Most expensive sales

Top apartment sales

1. AED 200,000,000 – One Za'Abeel Tower, Zaabeel First
2. AED 62,100,000 – Bulgari Residences 3, Jumeirah Bay Islands
3. AED 40,136,010 – Safa One Tower A, Al Wasl
4. AED 31,395,000 – Damac Bay Tower B, Marsa Dubai
5. AED 29,553,000 – Damac Bay Tower A, Marsa Dubai

Top villa sales

1. AED 200,000,000 – Palm Jumeirah
2. AED 165,620,000 – Al Jaddaf
3. AED 125,000,000 – Hadaeq Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid
4. AED 100,000,000 – Al Hebiah Fourth
5. AED 95,000,000 – Emirates Living

Notes on methodology

Scope. The headline totals and the category table span every property category captured in the data, Plot and Building included. The primary/resale split, the top-area rankings and the year-on-year series are limited to Apartment, Villa and Commercial, so those numbers are intentionally lower than the headline and should not be summed across sections.

Rounding. The headline totals are the authoritative rounded figures. Category-level breakdowns are rounded on their own and may not add up precisely to the headline.

Definitions. Price figures are medians rather than averages. Year-on-year sets the period against the matching period a year earlier. All values are in AED; areas are in square feet.