Dubai Real Estate Market Report — November, 2023

Dubai Real Estate Market Report – November 2023

Dubai's property market wrapped up November 2023 with 12,281 transactions worth AED 42.52 billion, marking a record November for both dealflow and value. Narrowed to the apartment, villa and commercial segments — the basis for the detailed analysis that follows — the market recorded 11,730 deals, up 8% on November 2022, while their combined AED 34.60 billion in value surged a much steeper 25%. That divergence between an 8% volume rise and a 25% value rise is the month's defining theme.

Villas powered the growth. Apartment pricing eased over the year even as apartment deal counts stayed at record levels, so the headline value increase stemmed almost wholly from the villa segment, where both demand and prices rose sharply.

Headline figures

Year-on-year performance by category

Apartments stayed the market's engine on count, logging 8,319 sales — 78 above the prior year for a 1% gain, and the highest November apartment volume in the 10-year series. Value, however, moved differently: turnover of AED 16.02 billion dropped 9% year on year, the median price softened to AED 1,572 per square foot (down 5%), and the median ticket eased 5% to AED 1,260,000. Buyers stayed busy but shifted into cheaper stock, leaving apartment values under their year-ago mark despite record deal counts. Over a longer horizon, apartment prices per square foot still sit 30% above their 2014 base.

Villas were the clear standout. Volume climbed 32% to 3,074 sales — 745 more than November 2022, and, as with apartments, the highest November villa tally in the 10-year series — while value almost doubled, up 87% to AED 17.97 billion. Importantly, this wasn't just more deals at unchanged prices: the median reached AED 1,122 per square foot, up 10% and the highest November reading in the series, and the median villa ticket rose 21% to AED 3,114,000. Villas therefore surpassed apartments in total value on a fraction of the deal count, and now stand 47% above their 2014 price-per-square-foot base — the sharpest signal of where capital pooled this month.

Commercial real estate was modest in absolute size but robust across every measure. Its 337 sales grew 31% — 80 above a year earlier and the highest November volume since 2014 — while turnover of AED 619.73 million rose 57%. Pricing stole the show: at AED 1,209 per square foot, up 27%, the segment posted its highest November price per square foot in the 10-year series, and the median commercial ticket leapt 39% to AED 1,150,000. Even so, commercial pricing has scarcely shifted over the decade, sitting just 4% above its 2014 base — a reminder of how far behind residential this segment started.

Every category, including plots and buildings

Plots merit a mention this month. Land made up 551 transactions worth AED 7.92 billion — more than the whole commercial segment's value — at a median AED 320 per square foot and a median ticket of AED 3,500,000. That sizeable land turnover falls outside the apartment-villa-commercial basis and helps explain why the all-property headline value runs so far ahead of the three core segments. It also chimes with the wave of new master-development activity showing up in the area rankings.

Primary versus resale

The primary market carried the load. New-build sales represented 59% of volume but 66% of value — 6,978 deals worth AED 22.98 billion — while the resale market took 41% of transactions yet only 34% of value, or 4,752 deals worth AED 11.62 billion. That seven-point gap between resale's volume and value shares reveals resale activity tilting toward smaller, cheaper units, with developers' off-plan launches winning the larger tickets.

Where the activity was

Palm Jebel Ali headed the value table at AED 5.98 billion, dwarfing the next tier — Dubai South (AED 2.03 billion), Downtown Dubai (AED 1.96 billion), and Marsa Dubai and Business Bay (AED 1.84 billion each) — and highlighting the draw of new waterfront master-planning. By deal count the picture swings to established apartment districts: Al Barsha South Fourth led with 1,245 transactions, ahead of Business Bay (936), Downtown Dubai (668), Dubai South (661) and Al Merkadh (651). Business Bay, Downtown Dubai and Dubai South show up on both lists, marking them as the month's true all-round hotspots.

Rental market

The rental market revealed a striking split: registered contract counts fell sharply across every segment while rents rose everywhere. New apartment leases dropped 45.13% to 11,600 contracts, yet the median new apartment rent rose 20% to AED 60,000 and rent per square foot climbed 25% to AED 80; renewals mirrored the shape, with 13,646 apartment renewals (down 35.71%) at a median AED 49,500, up 7.75%. Villas showed a sharper version — new villa contracts fell 44.59% to 1,336, but the median new rent rose 14.29% to AED 160,000 and rent per square foot jumped 30% to AED 65 — and commercial echoed the pattern, with 1,857 new leases (down 38.43%) at a median AED 100,000, up 8.08%. Across every segment new leases carried a premium over renewals, rewarding tenants who stayed put.

Supply

Supply kept expanding. Developers launched 10,116 units across 31 projects while 4,476 units across 14 projects were handed over — a launch-to-delivery ratio of 2.3 to one and a net 5,640 more units launched than delivered. That pipeline skew toward new launches fits with the primary market's grip on sales and points to a deepening off-plan inventory heading into 2024.

Launched

• Sobha Seahaven - Tower C – Marsa Dubai (Sobha), 204 units
• Nas3 – Al Barsha South 3 (Rabdan), 288 units
• Plagette 32 – Al Hebiah Fourth (Majid Al Futtaim), 32 units
• Vida Residences Dubai Hills Estate – Hadaeq Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid (Emaar), 217 units
• The Quayside – Business Bay (Ellington), 119 units
• Avonlea Building 2 – Madinat Dubai Almelaheyah (Emaar), 163 units
• Hillside Residences 3 - E – Jabal Ali First (Wasl), 261 units
• Ag Central – Wadi Al Safa 5 (Ag Properties), 99 units
• Azizi Venice 9 -B – Dubai South (Azizi), 740 units
• Avant Garde Residences By Skyline – Al Barsha South Fourth (Skyline Builders), 175 units
• Aras Heights – Wadi Al Safa 3 (Aras Development), 73 units
• Damac Hills - Golf Greens 1 -Tower A – Al Hebiah Third (Damac), 479 units
• Azizi Venice 8 -Retails – Dubai South (Azizi), 778 units
• Park Gate – Hadaeq Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid (Emaar), 87 units
• Azizi Venice 6 - Building C – Dubai South (Azizi), 420 units
• Haven Living – Dubai Islands (Metac), 50 units
• Equiti Gates – Jabal Ali Industrial Second (Bnh), 284 units
• Reportage Village 1 – Wadi Al Safa 7 (Reportage), 1,752 units
• Damac Hills - Golf Greens 2 -Tower B – Al Hebiah Third (Damac), 606 units
• Oceanz 1 By Danube – Madinat Dubai Almelaheyah (Danube), 538 units
• Azizi Venice 2 – Dubai South (Azizi), 526 units
• The Lakeview Villas By Ellington – Wadi Al Safa 3 (Ellington), 22 units
• Albarari Ixora Villas – Wadi Al Safa 3 (Al Barari), 189 units
• Eden House The Canal – Jumeirah Second (H&H), 109 units
• Beverly Residence 2 – Al Barsha South Fourth (Hmb Homes), 108 units
• Mallside Residence – Hadaeq Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid (Royal Development Company), 148 units
• Sea Horse Villa – World Islands (Kleindienst), 1 units
• Albero By Oro24 – Wadi Al Safa 2 (Jumeirah Luxury Living), 192 units
• Azizi Venice 5 -B – Dubai South (Azizi), 484 units
• Oceanz 2 By Danube – Madinat Dubai Almelaheyah (Danube), 781 units
• The Crestmark – Business Bay (Ellington), 191 units

Delivered

• Avanos – Al Barsha South Fourth (Myra), 96 units
• Belgravia Square B – Al Barsha South Fourth (Ellington), 229 units
• Al Helal Al Zahaby 3 – Warsan Fourth (Al Helal Al Zahaby), 67 units
• Wilton Park Residences Ii – Al Merkadh (Ellington), 321 units
• Mr. C Residences Jumeirah - Block B3 – Jumeirah Second (Alta), 46 units
• One Za'Abeel Tower – Zaabeel First (Ithra Dubai), 1,034 units
• Azizi Riviera 24 – Al Merkadh (Azizi), 212 units
• The Valley - Eden – Al Yufrah 1 (Emaar), 362 units
• La Belle Vue – Al Barsha South Fourth (Byblos), 10 units
• Azizi Riviera 26 – Al Merkadh (Azizi), 272 units
• Elan – Al Hebiah Fourth (Majid Al Futtaim), 916 units
• Ahad Residences – Business Bay (Ahad), 357 units
• Reem Townhouses – Al Yelayiss 2 (Nshama), 364 units
• Westwood By Imtiaz – Jabal Ali First (Imtiaz), 190 units

Most expensive sales

Top apartment sales

1. AED 106,750,000 – One Za'Abeel Tower, Zaabeel First
2. AED 60,000,000 – Bulgari Residences 3, Jumeirah Bay Islands
3. AED 40,136,010 – Safa One Tower A, Al Wasl
4. AED 26,000,000 – Bulgari Residences 2, Jumeirah Bay Islands
5. AED 26,000,000 – Luxury Family Residences 2, Business Bay

Top villa sales

1. AED 200,000,000 – Palm Jumeirah
2. AED 125,000,000 – Hadaeq Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid
3. AED 72,140,056 – World Islands
4. AED 46,018,800 – Palm Jebel Ali
5. AED 42,800,000 – Me'Aisem First

Notes on methodology

Scope. Headline totals and the category table cover every property category recorded in the data, including Plot and Building. The primary/resale split, top-area rankings and the year-on-year series cover Apartment, Villa and Commercial only, so those figures are deliberately smaller than the headline and should not be added across sections.

Rounding. Headline totals are the authoritative rounded figures. Category-level breakdowns are rounded independently and may not sum exactly to the headline.

Definitions. Price figures are medians, not averages. Year-on-year compares the period against the same period one year earlier. All values in AED; areas in square feet.