Dubai Real Estate Market Report — Q4, 2022

Dubai Real Estate Market Report – Q4 2022

Dubai's property market ended 2022 with its strongest quarter ever recorded. Spanning apartments, villas and commercial units, 27,994 transactions completed in Q4 2022, a 63% increase on Q4 2021, for a combined AED 70.43 billion — a 79% rise year on year. Volume and value each set fresh highs for the nine-year series.

Taking in every property type, plots and buildings included, the quarter registered 28,842 transactions worth AED 81.68 billion at a median of AED 1,360 per square foot. Apartments carried the load.

Headline figures

Year-on-year performance by category

Apartments powered the growth. Volume reached 21,482 deals, an 84% annual gain and 9,811 above the previous Q4 — the highest Q4 apartment count in the nine-year series. Value doubled, up 100% to AED 45.01 billion, while the median price hardened to AED 1,673 per square foot (+24% year on year, and 38% above 2014), also a series high for a fourth quarter. The median apartment ticket climbed 17% to AED 1,346,125.

Villas expanded more selectively. The 5,778 transactions represented a 20% yearly rise — 955 above a year earlier and, as with apartments, the highest Q4 villa tally in the nine-year series. Value outpaced volume, up 52% to AED 24.32 billion, reflecting the segment's heftier tickets: the median villa traded at AED 2,593,000, itself 24% higher. Pricing hit AED 1,012 per square foot, a 21% year-on-year gain and 33% above 2014.

Commercial was the quietest segment but hardly stagnant. The 734 deals nudged up just 4% — a mere 28 above the prior Q4 — yet still the highest Q4 commercial volume since 2014. Value leapt 40% to AED 1.11 billion, and the median price of AED 928 per square foot rose 24% year on year to its strongest Q4 mark since 2017, though it stays 21% under its 2014 level. The median commercial ticket rose 30% to AED 896,347.

Every category, including plots and buildings

Beyond the three core categories, plots added 848 transactions worth AED 11.25 billion — the third-largest pool of value after apartments and villas — and carried comfortably the highest median ticket of any category at AED 5,340,150. At a median of AED 500 per square foot, land traded well beneath built product, but its large lot sizes kept individual cheques the biggest in the market.

Primary versus resale

Developer off-plan sales led the market. Primary transactions represented 63% of volume and 66% of value — 17,750 deals worth AED 46.72 billion. The resale market took the remaining 10,244 deals (37%) and AED 23.71 billion (34%), its value share running three points beneath its volume share as the pricier launches clustered in the primary channel.

Where the activity was

Palm Jumeirah headed the value table at AED 10.85 billion, ahead of Marsa Dubai (AED 7.29 billion), Hadaeq Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid (AED 5.44 billion), Business Bay (AED 5.27 billion) and Al Merkadh (AED 4.05 billion). By deal count the order shifts toward the mid-market: Business Bay led with 3,015 transactions, then Al Merkadh (2,367), Marsa Dubai (2,296), Al Barsha South Fourth (1,958) and Palm Jumeirah (1,520) — the Palm's lofty average prices lifting it to the top of value on far fewer sales.

Rental market

Leasing volumes surged everywhere. New apartment contracts rose 57.10% to 61,281 at a median AED 49,000 (+22.50%), while apartment renewals leapt 161.85% to 61,429 — yet renewal rents stayed flat at AED 46,000 (0%). The same divide ran through villas (new rents +12.50% to AED 135,000 against renewals +1.34%) and commercial (new +25.78% to AED 90,000 against renewals +7.82%): landlords repriced steeply on turnover while sitting tenants renewed on far milder terms.

Supply

Supply tilted firmly toward the pipeline. Developers launched 18,727 units across 64 projects while handing over 8,187 units from 24 projects — a launch-to-delivery ratio of 2.3 and a net 10,540 more units launched than completed, pointing to a build-up of future stock behind present demand.

Selected launches

• Ag Square – Wadi Al Safa 5 (Ag Properties), 372 units
• The Eugene Townhouses – Wadi Al Safa 3 (Tanmiyat), 47 units
• Park Horizon - Tower 2 – Hadaeq Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid (Emaar), 302 units
• Samana Santorini – Al Hebiah Second (Samana), 157 units
• Mayas Geneva – Al Barsha South Fourth (Sama Ezdan), 87 units
• Arabian Ranches Lll - Raya – Wadi Al Safa 5 (Emaar), 240 units
• Oakley Square Residences - Tower B – Al Barsha South Fourth (Ellington), 269 units
• The Residence | Burj Khalifa – Downtown Dubai (Emaar), 35 units
• Binghatti Nova – Al Barsha South Fourth (Binghatti), 211 units
• Marquis Signature – Al Barsha South 3 (2020 Holdings), 91 units
• … and 54 further projects

Selected completions

• Azizi Riviera 6 – Al Merkadh (Azizi), 161 units
• Burj Royale – Downtown Dubai (Emaar), 609 units
• Parkside 3 – Dubai South (Emaar), 365 units
• Arabian Ranches Iii - Sun – Wadi Al Safa 5 (Emaar), 432 units
• The Terraces S – Al Merkadh (Bolton), 255 units
• Elysee Ii By Pantheon – Al Barsha South Fourth (Pantheon), 162 units
• Azizi Riviera 13 – Al Merkadh (Azizi), 236 units
• Golf Grove – Hadaeq Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid (Emaar), 166 units
• Stella Maris – Marsa Dubai (Bloom Property), 330 units
• Navitas Tower B – Madinat Hind 4 (Damac), 1,155 units
• … and 14 further projects

Most expensive sales

Top apartment sales

1. AED 60,808,800 – Palm Beach Towers- 3, Palm Jumeirah
2. AED 55,000,000 – Serenia Living - Tower 3, Palm Jumeirah
3. AED 53,630,529 – Mr C Residences Jumeirah - Block B3, Jumeirah Second
4. AED 51,944,523 – Mr C Residences Jumeirah - Block B1, Jumeirah Second
5. AED 50,044,256 – Mr C Residences Jumeirah - Block B2, Jumeirah Second

Top villa sales

1. AED 300,000,000 – Palm Jumeirah
2. AED 130,000,000 – Jumeirah Bay Islands
3. AED 104,404,800 – Me'Aisem First
4. AED 85,000,000 – Emirates Living
5. AED 45,070,000 – Al Hebiah Fourth

Notes on methodology

Scope. Headline totals and the category table span every property category captured in the data, Plot and Building included. The primary/resale split, the top-area rankings and the year-on-year series cover only Apartment, Villa and Commercial, so those figures are intentionally smaller than the headline and should not be summed across sections.

Rounding. The headline totals are the authoritative rounded figures. Category-level breakdowns are rounded on their own and may not add up precisely to the headline.

Definitions. Price figures are medians rather than averages. Year-on-year sets the period against the same period a year before. All values are in AED; areas are in square feet.