Dubai Real Estate Market Report — September, 2021

Dubai Real Estate Market Report – September 2021

Landing mid-way through Dubai's first full post-lockdown year, September 2021 showed a recovery that was hard to miss. With restrictions loosening and overseas buyers returning, the residential market delivered its best September in the eight-year series. Apartment, villa and commercial sales together came to 5,641 transactions, 59% above September 2020, while their combined value leapt 123% to AED 12.35 billion.

Taking in every property type, plots included, the month produced 5,887 transactions worth AED 16.29 billion, at a blended median of AED 1,008/sqft. Both volume and value were records for the month.

Headline figures

Year-on-year performance by category

The expansion was powered by apartments. The segment booked 3,738 transactions, a 64% rise year on year and 1,462 more sales than the previous September — the highest September volume in the eight-year series. Value grew even more quickly, up 144% to AED 6.53 billion. Prices firmed in step with demand: the median hit AED 1,246/sqft, 13% higher year on year and now 4% above the 2014 baseline, the strongest September rate per square foot in the series. The median apartment ticket climbed 29% to AED 1,109,049.

Villas told a comparable story of scale, if with slightly less heat. Sales advanced 51% to 1,731 — 585 more than the year-earlier September and, like apartments, a record for the month over the eight-year run. Value more than doubled, rising 102% to AED 5.49 billion. The standout on the villa side is the longer-term price recovery: at AED 793/sqft the median is 7% up year on year but a notable 24% above 2014, the widest gap to that baseline of any category. The median villa ticket, at AED 1,872,586, added 18% and stays comfortably the biggest of the built segments.

Commercial was the smallest slice yet hardly stood still. Its 172 transactions represented a 38% gain and the best September since 2018, while value rose 126% to AED 329.28 million. Prices advanced 15% year on year to AED 840/sqft, though — unlike apartments and villas — the segment is still 20% beneath its 2014 level, a reminder that the office and retail recovery began from a deeper hole. The median commercial ticket rose 45% to AED 867,291.

Every category, including plots and buildings

Plots sit apart from the apartment, villa and commercial tallies but pulled real weight in the headline: only 246 land deals produced AED 3.94 billion, behind just apartments and villas by value and towering over the commercial segment. That owes to their scale — a median plot ticket of AED 4,825,000 at AED 524/sqft — and accounts for much of the distance between the all-property total and the built-segment numbers.

Primary versus resale

Off-plan led on both measures. Primary sales took 65% of volume and 66% of value — 3,676 deals worth AED 8.10 billion — against 1,965 resale transactions (35% of volume) worth AED 4.26 billion (34% of value). The primary market's marginally larger share of value than volume hints at slightly bigger average tickets on new launches, in keeping with the wave of developer activity feeding the month.

Where the activity was

Palm Jumeirah led the value table at AED 1.31 billion, ahead of Marsa Dubai (AED 1.19 billion) and Hadaeq Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid (AED 1.16 billion), with Downtown Dubai (AED 929.19 million) and Business Bay (AED 888.65 million) completing the value leaders. By transaction count the order tilts toward the high-volume corridors: Marsa Dubai (478) and Business Bay (477) sat almost level at the top, then Wadi Al Safa 5 (431), Al Thanyah Fifth (331) and Al Barsha South Fourth (292). Marsa Dubai's place atop both lists underlines its depth, while Palm Jumeirah's value lead on fewer deals reflects its premium tickets.

Rental market

Leasing volumes broadly grew even as headline apartment rents remained soft. New apartment contracts rose 14.72% to 13,560 and renewals 10.64% to 8,191, yet the median new-lease rent slid 4.76% to AED 40,000 and renewals fell 11.11% to AED 48,000 — evidence that tenants were still securing lower pricing even as sales boomed. Villas went the other way: new contracts dropped 18.01% to 1,420 while renewals climbed 28.40% to 1,727, and new-lease rents nudged up 4.17% to AED 125,000. Commercial leasing was the standout riser, with new contracts up 28.08% to 1,756 and their median rent up 24.89% to AED 75,635.

Supply

The development pipeline stayed close to balanced. Developers launched 2,911 units across 12 projects and delivered 2,835 units across 8, a launch-to-delivery ratio of 1.0 and a net of 76 more units launched than handed over — new supply and completions largely moving in step through the rebound.

Launched

• Binghatti Gems – Al Barsha South Fourth (Binghatti), 77 units
• La Sirene - Building 6 – Jumeirah First (Meraas), 142 units
• Beach Mansion - Tower 2 – Marsa Dubai (Emaar), 503 units
• Harrington House – Al Barsha South Fourth (Ellington), 95 units
• Damac Hills (2) - Victoria 2 – Madinat Hind 4 (Damac), 96 units
• Samana Park Views – Al Barsha South 3 (Samana), 178 units
• La Rosa 6 – Wadi Al Safa 5 (Dubai Properties), 272 units
• Cavalli Casa Tower – Al Safouh Second (Zenica), 441 units
• Arabian Ranches Lll - June – Wadi Al Safa 5 (Emaar), 183 units
• Arabian Ranches Lll - June 2 – Wadi Al Safa 5 (Emaar), 35 units
• Peninsula One – Business Bay (Select Group), 525 units
• Reem Townhouses – Al Yelayiss 2 (Nshama), 364 units

Delivered

• Villanova Amaranta B – Wadi Al Safa 5 (Dubai Properties), 422 units
• La Cote ? Building 5 – Jumeirah First (Meraas), 443 units
• O 2 – Al Barsha South Fourth (Tiger), 331 units
• Murano Residence 5 – Jabal Ali First (Ghreiwati), 383 units
• Sama Townhouses – Al Yelayiss 2 (Nshama), 264 units
• Serena - Casa Viva – Wadi Al Safa 7 (Dubai Properties), 494 units
• Sobha Hartland Estates Townhouses – Al Merkadh (Sobha), 27 units
• Sunrise Bay Tower 2 – Marsa Dubai (Emaar), 471 units

Most expensive sales

Top apartment sales

1. AED 25,000,000 – Five At Palm Jumeirah Dubai, Palm Jumeirah
2. AED 17,497,888 – Grand Bleu Tower Interiors By Elie Saab Tower 2, Marsa Dubai
3. AED 15,000,000 – Bulgari Residences 1, Jumeirah Bay Islands
4. AED 13,500,000 – Bulgari Residences 2, Jumeirah Bay Islands
5. AED 12,000,000 – Balqis Residence - Garden Villas, Palm Jumeirah

Top villa sales

1. AED 59,500,000 – Emirates Living
2. AED 47,000,000 – Palm Jumeirah
3. AED 31,581,888 – Hadaeq Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid
4. AED 26,860,000 – Me'Aisem First
5. AED 26,500,000 – Al Merkadh

Notes on methodology

Scope. Headline totals and the category table cover every property category recorded in the data, including Plot and Building. The primary/resale split, top-area rankings and the year-on-year series cover Apartment, Villa and Commercial only, so those figures are deliberately smaller than the headline and should not be added across sections.

Rounding. Headline totals are the authoritative rounded figures. Category-level breakdowns are rounded independently and may not sum exactly to the headline.

Definitions. Price figures are medians, not averages. Year-on-year compares the period against the same period one year earlier. All values in AED; areas in square feet.