Dubai Real Estate Market Report — Q4, 2021

Dubai Real Estate Market Report – Q4 2021

Q4 2021 offered the clearest sign yet that Dubai's property market had turned the corner. It rounded off the emirate's first full year after pandemic lockdowns, and as travel curbs eased and international buyers returned, the quarter produced 17,965 transactions worth AED 46.81 billion across all property types — a record for both volume and value in the eight-year series. The median sale came in at AED 1,078/sqft.

Narrow the focus to the core Apartment, Villa and Commercial segments and the rebound looks equally stark: 17,200 deals, up 68% from Q4 2020, with combined value of AED 39.31 billion, up 133%. Importantly, this was no volume-only recovery — prices firmed alongside activity in each of those categories.

Headline figures

Year-on-year performance by category

Apartments led the expansion. The segment logged 11,671 sales — 4,391 more than in Q4 2020, a 60% jump, and the highest Q4 volume in the eight-year series. Value more than doubled, up 154% to AED 22.54 billion, and pricing firmed alongside it: the median reached AED 1,353/sqft, up 27% year on year (itself a Q4 series high) and 11% above the 2014 base, while the typical apartment ticket climbed 34% to AED 1,150,000. At the summit of the market, a unit at Jumeirah Living Marsa Al Arab traded for AED 50,000,000.

Villas expanded even faster by volume, rising 85% to 4,823 deals — 2,217 above the prior year and their own Q4 record. Value grew 112% to AED 15.97 billion, the median firmed 20% to AED 835/sqft (10% over 2014), and the typical villa ticket nudged up 14% to AED 2,087,000. Trophy demand ran hot: two distinct villa sales, one in Emirates Living and one on Jumeirah Bay Islands, each closed at AED 92,000,000.

Commercial was the smallest slice yet delivered the fastest volume growth of the trio, more than doubling to 706 deals (up 102%, its highest Q4 count since 2014) worth AED 792.62 million, up 69%. Pricing recovered to AED 749/sqft, up 14% and the firmest since 2018 — but at 37% below the 2014 level, commercial stays the one core segment still trading well under where the series started. The median commercial ticket, at AED 687,500, was essentially flat (up 3%).

Every category, including plots and buildings

Beyond the three core segments, land changed hands in volume as well: 763 plot transactions raised AED 7.41 billion at a median AED 481/sqft, with a typical plot ticket of AED 2,758,000. Two building sales contributed a further AED 90.50 million.

Primary versus resale

Developer sales set the tempo. Primary transactions comprised 68% of core-segment volume and 69% of value — 11,644 deals worth AED 27.24 billion — while resale took the remaining 32% by volume and 31% by value, or 5,556 deals worth AED 12.06 billion. Resale's value share sitting a point beneath its volume share suggests secondary trades cleared at marginally below-average tickets.

Where the activity was

Marsa Dubai topped value at AED 5.02 billion, ahead of Downtown Dubai (AED 3.42 billion) and Palm Jumeirah (AED 3.24 billion), with Al Hebiah Fourth (AED 2.88 billion) and Business Bay (AED 2.83 billion) close behind. By deal count the ranking shifted: Business Bay led the table with 1,888 transactions, then Marsa Dubai (1,801), Al Hebiah Fourth (1,124), Wadi Al Safa 5 (1,071) and Al Barsha South Fourth (979) — established waterfront districts drawing the biggest cheques while emerging communities powered raw turnover.

Rental market

The leasing market shifted more gently than sales. New apartment leases climbed 11.19% to 39,008 contracts, yet the median new rent stayed flat at AED 40,000 (per-sqft rents ticked up 6.38% to AED 50/sqft), while renewals rose 21.57% to 23,460 with the median renewal rent easing 4.17% to AED 46,000. Villas recorded fewer new leases — down 21.36% to 3,391 — even as new-lease rents rose 9.09% to AED 120,000, and renewals leapt 30.31% to 4,235. Commercial leasing stood out, with new contracts up 32.62% to 4,826 and new median rents up 8.42% to AED 71,554.

Supply

Developers leaned back into the market. Roughly 12,399 units were launched across 41 projects, versus 9,362 units delivered across 21 completed projects — a launch-to-delivery ratio of 1.3, or 3,037 more units launched than handed over. Put differently, the pipeline was refilling faster than it was draining.

Selected launches

• Jumeirah Living Marsa Al Arab – Um Suqaim Third (Meraas), 31 units
• The Pulse- Beachfront – Dubai South (Dubai South), 291 units
• Azizi Riviera 46 – Al Merkadh (Azizi), 422 units
• Damac Lagoons - Nice 1 – Al Hebiah Fifth (Damac), 551 units
• Alaya – Al Hebiah Fourth (Majid Al Futtaim), 409 units
• Damac Lagoons - Costa Brava (2) – Al Hebiah Fifth (Damac), 497 units
• Prime Residency 3 – Jabal Ali First (Prescott), 294 units
• Elysee Lll By Pantheon – Al Barsha South Fourth (Pantheon), 327 units
• Damac Lagoons - Santorini (3) – Al Hebiah Fifth (Damac), 96 units
• Chaimaa Avenue 2 – Al Barsha South Fourth (Deva), 93 units
• … and 31 further projects

Selected completions

• Oxford Boulevard – Al Barsha South Fourth (Deyaar), 131 units
• K1 – Wadi Al Safa 5 (Arabian Gulf), 147 units
• Opera Grand – Downtown Dubai (Emaar), 339 units
• Creek Rise Tower 2 – Dubai Creek Harbour (Emaar), 568 units
• Majestique Residence 2 – Dubai South (Credo Group), 60 units
• Club Villas At Dubai Hills – Hadaeq Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid (Emaar), 150 units
• Al Ramth 9 – Al Hebiah Fifth (Dubai Properties), 2,251 units
• Park View Tower – Al Barsha South Fourth (Revi), 280 units
• Paramount Tower Hotel & Residences – Business Bay (Damac), 881 units
• Creek Gate Tower 2 – Dubai Creek Harbour (Emaar), 517 units
• … and 11 further projects

Most expensive sales

Top apartment sales

1. AED 50,000,000 – Jumeirah Living Marsa Al Arab, Um Suqaim Third
2. AED 40,000,000 – Bulgari Residences 2, Jumeirah Bay Islands
3. AED 37,000,000 – Five At Palm Jumeirah Dubai, Palm Jumeirah
4. AED 25,000,000 – Bluewaters Residences 9, Marsa Dubai
5. AED 21,778,888 – Palace Beach Residence Tower 2, Marsa Dubai

Top villa sales

1. AED 92,000,000 – Emirates Living
2. AED 92,000,000 – Jumeirah Bay Islands
3. AED 60,000,000 – Palm Jumeirah
4. AED 47,417,333 – Hadaeq Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid
5. AED 32,000,000 – Al Merkadh

Notes on methodology

Scope. The headline figures and the category table take in every property category captured in the data, Plot and Building included. The primary/resale breakdown, the top-area rankings and the year-on-year series relate to Apartment, Villa and Commercial alone, so those numbers are intentionally smaller than the headline and should not be summed across sections.

Rounding. The headline totals are the definitive rounded values. Category-level breakdowns are rounded on their own and may not add up precisely to the headline.

Definitions. Price points are medians rather than averages. Year-on-year sets the period against the matching period twelve months before. All monetary values are in AED; areas are in square feet.