Dubai Real Estate Market Report — Q3, 2021
Q3, 2021 Analysis
Dubai Real Estate Market Report – Q3 2021
Dubai's property market roared back to life in Q3 2021. With 2021 the first complete year free of pandemic lockdowns, activity rebounded forcefully as curbs lifted and international buyers came back — and the quarter's figures bear it out: 16,048 transactions worth AED 42.48 billion, at a median of AED 1,022/sqft.
On the tighter Apartment, Villa and Commercial measure, 15,283 deals were struck, up +92% from Q3 2020, producing AED 33.95 billion in value — a +169% leap. Each set a fresh Q3 record for the market.
Headline figures
| Segment | Transactions | Value | Median price |
|---|---|---|---|
| All sales | 16,048 | AED 42.48 billion | AED 1,022/sqft |
| Primary (off-plan & developer) | 10,675 | AED 27.27 billion | AED 1,132/sqft |
| Resale (secondary) | 5,373 | AED 15.21 billion | AED 824/sqft |
Year-on-year performance by category
| Category | Volume | YoY | Value | YoY | Median price/sqft | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apartment | 10,467 | +90% | AED 18.16 billion | +185% | AED 1,251/sqft | +23% |
| Villa | 4,347 | +101% | AED 15.07 billion | +159% | AED 792/sqft | +18% |
| Commercial | 469 | +56% | AED 711.95 million | +66% | AED 796/sqft | +22% |
Apartments powered the expansion. The segment booked 10,467 sales, up +90% year on year and 4,966 deals more than the prior Q3 — the strongest Q3 volume in the series to date. Value rose faster still, up +185% to AED 18.16 billion, while the median price hit AED 1,251/sqft, a record Q3 level and +23% above the year before. The typical apartment ticket advanced +35% to AED 1,100,000.
Villas bounced back even more sharply on volume, more than doubling to 4,347 sales (+101%, an added 2,186 deals) for their own best Q3 on record. Value gained +159% to AED 15.07 billion. Pricing hardened to AED 792/sqft, up +18% year on year and the firmest Q3 reading since 2017, while the median villa traded at AED 2,250,960, a +30% rise. The pandemic-era hunger for space plainly flowed straight into the recovery.
Commercial property, much smaller in scale, took part in the upswing rather than leading it. Its 469 deals were up +56% — the busiest Q3 since 2015 — and value added +66% to AED 711.95 million. At AED 796/sqft (+22%), pricing reached its highest since 2017, yet remains -25% beneath its 2014 level, a reminder that commercial came into the boom from a far weaker base than housing.
Every category, including plots and buildings
| Category | Transactions | Value | Median price/sqft | Median price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apartment | 10,467 | AED 18.16 billion | AED 1,251/sqft | AED 1,100,000 |
| Villa | 4,347 | AED 15.07 billion | AED 792/sqft | AED 2,250,960 |
| Plot | 765 | AED 8.54 billion | AED 537/sqft | AED 4,599,000 |
| Commercial | 469 | AED 711.95 million | AED 796/sqft | AED 811,315 |
Plots fell outside the Apartment-Villa-Commercial count but bulked up the headline: 765 land deals worth AED 8.54 billion traded at a median of AED 537/sqft. With a median ticket of AED 4,599,000, plots were by some margin the largest typical transactions of the quarter, reflecting sustained developer and end-user land banking as project launches restarted.
Primary versus resale
Off-plan spearheaded the recovery. Primary sales comprised 67% of Apartment, Villa and Commercial volume and 66% of value — 10,175 deals worth AED 22.29 billion. Resale claimed the remaining 33% of deals and a fractionally higher 34% of value, or 5,108 transactions totalling AED 11.66 billion; that small value premium over volume hints at a somewhat costlier secondary basket.
Where the activity was
| # | Area by value | Value | Area by volume | Transactions |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marsa Dubai | AED 4.41 billion | Marsa Dubai | 1,668 |
| 2 | Hadaeq Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid | AED 3.40 billion | Business Bay | 1,345 |
| 3 | Palm Jumeirah | AED 3.33 billion | Wadi Al Safa 5 | 1,025 |
| 4 | Downtown Dubai | AED 2.26 billion | Al Barsha South Fourth | 1,001 |
| 5 | Business Bay | AED 2.25 billion | Al Thanyah Fifth | 948 |
Marsa Dubai headed both league tables, first on value at AED 4.41 billion and first on volume with 1,668 deals. On value it was followed by Hadaeq Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid (AED 3.40 billion), Palm Jumeirah (AED 3.33 billion), Downtown Dubai (AED 2.26 billion) and Business Bay (AED 2.25 billion). Business Bay also came second by volume with 1,345 deals, ahead of Wadi Al Safa 5 (1,025), Al Barsha South Fourth (1,001) and Al Thanyah Fifth (948).
Rental market
Leasing painted a subtler picture than sales. New apartment contracts climbed +8.06% to 34,935, yet the median new rent eased -4.76% to AED 40,000, and renewal rents dropped harder, off -14.44% to AED 46,200. Villas went the opposite way: new villa contracts fell -21.66% to 4,222 as prospective tenants bought instead, but the median new villa rent surged +13.10% to AED 124,408. Commercial rents strengthened as well, with new leases up +18.89% to AED 75,000.
| Category | Type | Contracts | YoY | Median rent | YoY | Median rent/sqft | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apartment | New | 34,935 | +8.06% | AED 40,000 | -4.76% | AED 48/sqft | -2.04% |
| Apartment | Renewal | 21,601 | +1.10% | AED 46,200 | -14.44% | AED 48/sqft | -11.11% |
| Villa | New | 4,222 | -21.66% | AED 124,408 | +13.10% | AED 38/sqft | +11.76% |
| Villa | Renewal | 4,710 | +8.55% | AED 128,663 | -4.69% | AED 34/sqft | 0% |
| Commercial | New | 4,416 | +21.85% | AED 75,000 | +18.89% | AED 69/sqft | +15% |
| Commercial | Renewal | 4,976 | +7.38% | AED 75,000 | -3% | AED 54/sqft | +3.85% |
Supply
Supply leaned toward completions. Developers launched 5,119 units across 18 projects while 7,282 units in 24 projects were delivered — a launch-to-delivery ratio of 0.7 and a net 2,163 more homes handed over than begun. New launches were plainly reviving, yet the quarter's handovers still leaned on a pipeline set in motion before the pandemic.
Selected launches
- The Valley-Nara – Al Yufrah 1 (Emaar), 372 units
- Binghatti Gems – Al Barsha South Fourth (Binghatti), 77 units
- La Sirene - Building 6 – Jumeirah First (Meraas), 142 units
- Regalia – Business Bay (Deyaar), 913 units
- Murooj Alfurjan West – Jabal Ali First (Nakheel), 521 units
- Beach Mansion - Tower 2 – Marsa Dubai (Emaar), 503 units
- Harrington House – Al Barsha South Fourth (Ellington), 95 units
- Damac Hills (2) - Victoria 2 – Madinat Hind 4 (Damac), 96 units
- Samana Park Views – Al Barsha South 3 (Samana), 178 units
- Nicholas Residence – Al Barsha South Fourth (Segrex), 98 units
- … and 8 further projects
Selected completions
- Villanova Amaranta B – Wadi Al Safa 5 (Dubai Properties), 422 units
- Grenland – Wadi Al Safa 3 (Arloid), 61 units
- Amazonia-Ex – Madinat Hind 4 (Damac), 15 units
- La Cote ? Building 5 – Jumeirah First (Meraas), 443 units
- O 2 – Al Barsha South Fourth (Tiger), 331 units
- Binghatti Gateway – Al Jaddaf (Binghatti), 182 units
- Murano Residence 5 – Jabal Ali First (Ghreiwati), 383 units
- Rove Hotel – Al Wasl (Emaar), 530 units
- Sama Townhouses – Al Yelayiss 2 (Nshama), 264 units
- Serena - Casa Viva – Wadi Al Safa 7 (Dubai Properties), 494 units
- … and 14 further projects
Most expensive sales
Top apartment sales
- AED 72,000,000 – Palme Couture Residences, Palm Jumeirah
- AED 28,760,000 – Amna Tower, Business Bay
- AED 25,000,000 – Five At Palm Jumeirah Dubai, Palm Jumeirah
- AED 21,000,000 – The Address Residence Fountain Views 1, Downtown Dubai
- AED 18,000,000 – Vida Residence Downtown, Downtown Dubai
Top villa sales
- AED 103,000,000 – Hadaeq Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid
- AED 67,000,000 – Um Suqaim Third
- AED 59,500,000 – Emirates Living
- AED 52,000,000 – Al Merkadh
- AED 50,000,000 – Palm Jumeirah
Notes on methodology
Scope. The headline figures and the category table take in every property category captured in the data, Plot and Building included. The primary/resale breakdown, the top-area rankings and the year-on-year series relate to Apartment, Villa and Commercial alone, so those numbers are intentionally smaller than the headline and should not be summed across sections.
Rounding. The headline totals are the definitive rounded values. Category-level breakdowns are rounded on their own and may not add up precisely to the headline.
Definitions. Price points are medians rather than averages. Year-on-year sets the period against the matching period twelve months before. All monetary values are in AED; areas are in square feet.
Questions about Q3, 2021
What does this mean for your property?
A broker who works your community can read these numbers against what you own, or what you are about to buy.