Dubai Real Estate Market Report — Q2, 2021

Dubai Real Estate Market Report – Q2 2021

The second quarter of 2021 marked Dubai's first complete trading window unshackled by pandemic curbs, and the data points to an emphatic recovery. With lockdown rules relaxed and overseas purchasers back in play, the emirate booked 15,502 property deals totalling AED 36.80 billion across all asset classes — a record on both counts. Since the benchmark period is Q2 2020, the trough of the COVID shutdown, the annual comparisons look enormous: the Apartment, Villa and Commercial category by itself climbed +186% in volume to 14,758 transactions and +262% in value to AED 31.11 billion.

Still, this amounted to far more than an automatic rebound from a weak starting point. Rather than simply reverting to its pre-pandemic shape, the market overtook it, printing new highs for the series. The blended median sat at AED 962/sqft — though that headline conceals a stark divide between apartments that were still cooling and villa prices that were hardening.

Headline figures

Year-on-year performance by category

Apartments powered the quarter and set the pace of the expansion. The segment recorded 10,016 sales — its strongest Q2 tally since 2014 and a +146% rise year on year, or 5,943 more deals than in the locked-down Q2 2020. Value advanced +169% to AED 14.87 billion. The striking feature, however, was pricing: at AED 1,088/sqft the apartment median had slipped -18% over the year and -12% relative to 2014, the softest Q2 price per square foot across the eight-year series, while the median ticket eased -6% to AED 950,000. Purchasers came back in numbers yet transacted at the cyclical low for unit prices — even so, the very top of the market stayed resilient, headlined by an AED 42,000,000 apartment at Bulgari Residences 3, Jumeirah Bay Islands.

Villas present the mirror image on price. Their count rocketed +328% to 4,066 — the biggest Q2 volume in the eight-year run and 3,115 above the previous year — as value vaulted +417% to AED 15.23 billion. That figure nudged past the apartment segment even though villas trade at only a sliver of apartment volume, a consequence of the much heftier AED 2,349,944 median ticket, up +31% in its own right. And in contrast to apartments, villa pricing strengthened: the median hit AED 811/sqft, +20% year on year and +7% against 2014, the highest Q2 rate since 2016. It captures the post-lockdown dash for space in one statistic, as households paid a premium for bigger, ground-level homes.

Commercial property, the tiniest of the three core segments, delivered the flashiest headline percentages, though these rest heavily on an almost inactive prior-year base. Volume advanced +424% to 676 deals, the best Q2 count since 2015, while value surged +695% to AED 1.02 billion. The commercial median firmed to AED 648/sqft (+17% year on year) but stayed -38% under its 2014 mark, and the median ticket sat at AED 650,000 (+5%). Taken together, the three segments tell one coherent story: volumes bounced back everywhere, yet the price rebound was selective, concentrated in villas and, to a lesser extent, in commercial units.

Every category, including plots and buildings

Outside the three core segments, land stayed a substantial component. Plot sales totalled just 744 but accounted for AED 5.69 billion of value — exceeding the whole commercial segment — on a median ticket of AED 2,918,000 and a median of AED 500/sqft. It is this plot activity that carries the all-type value tally up to AED 36.80 billion from the AED 31.11 billion Apartment-Villa-Commercial base, underscoring that developer land-banking and big-ticket deals ran in tandem with the residential recovery.

Primary versus resale

New-build sales spearheaded the market, as they usually do in Dubai. Primary deals represented 61% of volume and 56% of value — 9,030 transactions worth AED 17.28 billion. The secondary market was hardly a spectator, though: resale supplied 39% of deals but a bigger 44% of value, across 5,728 transactions totalling AED 13.83 billion. That divergence between resale's volume and value shares signals that established, pricier stock — largely villas and prime apartments — traded at above-average tickets.

Where the activity was

Palm Jumeirah headed the value table at AED 4.01 billion — the site of the quarter's biggest single deal, an AED 330,000,000 villa — highlighting the comeback of trophy-home demand. Next came Marsa Dubai (Dubai Marina) at AED 3.84 billion and Hadaeq Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid at AED 3.42 billion, with Downtown Dubai (AED 2.15 billion) and Al Merkadh (AED 1.63 billion) completing the front-runners. The volume ranking read a little differently: Marsa Dubai ruled on count with 1,530 transactions, ahead of Al Thanyah Fifth (JLT) on 1,204 and Al Merkadh on 1,063, then Hadaeq Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid (1,005) and Al Barsha South Fourth (934). That contrast — Palm ahead on value, Marsa Dubai ahead on turnover — reflects a market busy at both the luxury and mid-market ends.

Rental market

The rental market climbed in step, although pricing once more diverged by asset class. Fresh apartment contracts leapt +90.49% to 30,374, yet the median new apartment rent eased -6.98% to AED 40,000 and renewals gave way more sharply, with the median renewal rent off -16.08% to AED 46,154 — tenants kept the upper hand even as demand volumes rose. Villas ran counter on new lettings: new villa contracts increased +12.92% to 3,584 and the median new villa rent added +14.29% to AED 120,000, mirroring the sales market's hunger for space. Commercial leasing was, proportionally, the liveliest of the lot, with new contracts up +138.19% to 4,235 and the median new rent strengthening +7.69% to AED 70,000.

Supply

On supply, completions outpaced new launches. Developers handed over 6,776 units across 19 schemes while launching 4,824 units across 31 — a launch-to-delivery ratio of 0.7 and a net 1,952 more homes delivered than begun. That wave of handovers helped absorb the demand rebound in the short run, though the relatively subdued launch count suggests developers were still rebuilding their pipelines following the pandemic pause.

Selected launches

• Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum City District One, B Villas – Al Merkadh (Meydan), 161 units
• Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum City , District One Phase Iii , Residences 21 – Al Merkadh (Meydan), 42 units
• Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum City , District One Phase Iii , Residences 26 – Al Merkadh (Meydan), 53 units
• Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum City District One B Extension Villas – Al Merkadh (Meydan), 67 units
• Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum City , District One Phase Iii , A Villas – Al Merkadh (Meydan), 38 units
• Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum City, District One Phase Iii, Residences 19 – Al Merkadh (Meydan), 42 units
• Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum City, District One Phase Iii, Residences 7 – Al Merkadh (Meydan), 136 units
• Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum City , District One Phase Iii , Residences 31 – Al Merkadh (Meydan), 42 units
• Palm Hills – Hadaeq Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid (Emaar), 76 units
• Aura – Al Hebiah Fourth (Majid Al Futtaim), 808 units
• … and 21 further projects

Selected completions

• Alandalus Building G – Me'Aisem First (Jumeirah Golf Estates), 29 units
• Alandalus Building E – Me'Aisem First (Jumeirah Golf Estates), 155 units
• 52|42 Tower 2 – Marsa Dubai (Emaar), 545 units
• Miraclz Tower – Al Barsha South 3 (Danube), 599 units
• Damac Hills (2) - Sycamore – Madinat Hind 4 (Damac), 184 units
• Bellevue Towers-2 – Downtown Dubai (Dubai Properties), 377 units
• Azizi Mina – Palm Jumeirah (Azizi), 196 units
• The 50 – Wadi Al Safa 3 (Trigono), 60 units
• Living Garden Ii – Al Barsha South Fourth (Lootah), 123 units
• Una Apartments B – Al Yelayiss 2 (Nshama), 487 units
• … and 9 further projects

Most expensive sales

Top apartment sales

1. AED 42,000,000 – Bulgari Residences 3, Jumeirah Bay Islands
2. AED 26,877,658 – Vida Residence Downtown, Downtown Dubai
3. AED 24,700,000 – Palme Couture Residences, Palm Jumeirah
4. AED 23,500,000 – Balqis Residence - Beach Villas, Palm Jumeirah
5. AED 23,112,000 – Bahar 6, Jbr, Marsa Dubai

Top villa sales

1. AED 330,000,000 – Palm Jumeirah
2. AED 72,380,000 – Emirates Living
3. AED 53,000,000 – Hadaeq Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid
4. AED 40,000,000 – Al Merkadh
5. AED 30,500,000 – Me'Aisem First

Notes on methodology

Scope. The headline figures and the category table take in every property category captured in the data, Plot and Building included. The primary/resale breakdown, the top-area rankings and the year-on-year series relate to Apartment, Villa and Commercial alone, so those numbers are intentionally smaller than the headline and should not be summed across sections.

Rounding. The headline totals are the definitive rounded values. Category-level breakdowns are rounded on their own and may not add up precisely to the headline.

Definitions. Price points are medians rather than averages. Year-on-year sets the period against the matching period twelve months before. All monetary values are in AED; areas are in square feet.