Dubai Real Estate Market Report — Q1, 2021

Dubai Real Estate Market Report – Q1 2021

The opening quarter of 2021 was Dubai's first uninterrupted spell of trading after the pandemic lockdowns, and the market responded emphatically. Across every property type, 11,614 sales changed hands for a combined AED 24.72 billion, at a blended AED 893/sqft.

Setting land and building deals aside, the core Apartment, Villa and Commercial segments logged 10,924 transactions, up +14% on Q1 2020, worth AED 20.00 billion — a +31% jump in value that comfortably outran the volume gain. Villas did the heavy lifting.

Headline figures

Year-on-year performance by category

Apartments stayed the market's backbone by count, with 7,634 sales — the highest Q1 volume since 2017 and 295 more than a year earlier, a modest +4%. Value reached AED 10.36 billion (+7%), yet pricing softened: the median settled at AED 1,040/sqft, down -11% year on year to the weakest Q1 reading since 2016, and the typical ticket eased -5% to AED 890,000. Buyers were active, but they were paying less.

Villas were the story of the quarter. Sales jumped +51% to 2,788 — 942 more deals than Q1 2020 and, like apartments, the strongest Q1 since 2017 — while value surged +71% to AED 9.04 billion. Here the price signal pointed the other way: the median rose +7% to AED 730/sqft, the highest Q1 figure since 2018, and the median ticket climbed +29% to AED 2,200,000. The post-lockdown search for space, gardens and privacy is written all through these numbers, with trophy deals such as the AED 68,000,000 sale in Emirates Living anchoring the top end.

Commercial property recovered in volume without recovering in price. Its 502 transactions were up +29% (113 more than a year earlier) and value rose +71% to AED 591.67 million, but at AED 683/sqft — down -2% — pricing sank to its lowest Q1 level in the eight-year series. The median ticket nonetheless firmed +12% to AED 672,500. So across all three segments value outpaced volume, yet only villas paired rising activity with rising prices.

Every category, including plots and buildings

Land counted for plenty beyond the core segments this quarter: 687 plot deals made up AED 4.66 billion — the third-largest value pool of the period — at AED 475/sqft, with a median plot ticket of AED 2,538,000. A further three building sales added AED 62.59 million. The scale of plot activity suggests developers and investors were restocking land banks as confidence came back.

Primary versus resale

Off-plan and secondary sales were finely poised. Primary deals made up 54% of core volume — 5,946 transactions worth AED 9.99 billion — while resale took the other 46%, or 4,978 deals. On value the two were level at 50% each, with resale in fact nudging ahead at AED 10.00 billion. That resale carried an equal share of value on fewer deals — a four-point gap over its volume share — signals that secondary transactions leaned toward larger, pricier homes.

Where the activity was

Marsa Dubai (Dubai Marina) led on both measures, heading value at AED 2.59 billion and volume at 1,140 deals. The rest of the value table ran through Palm Jumeirah (AED 2.25 billion), Hadaeq Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid (AED 1.55 billion), Business Bay (AED 1.32 billion) and Downtown Dubai (AED 1.19 billion). Palm Jumeirah stands out for ranking so high on value without featuring among the busiest districts — the signature of its high-ticket villas and branded residences. On volume, Business Bay came next with 1,060 deals, ahead of Al Barsha South Fourth (755), Al Thanyah Fifth (698) and Hadaeq Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid (671).

Rental market

Leasing volumes rebounded even as rents kept sliding. New apartment contracts leapt +41.66% to 34,911, yet the median new-lease rent slipped to AED 39,000 (-18.75%), with renewals at 18,875 (+8.88%) and a median of AED 47,000 (-16.07%). Villas were the exception on price: new villa leases held flat at AED 115,000 (0%) across 3,919 contracts, with rent per square foot even nudging up +2.78%. Commercial leasing grew too — 4,173 new contracts (+24.42%) — while its median new rent eased -11.93% to AED 65,000. The pattern mirrors the sales market: tenants returned in force, but only villas defended their pricing.

Supply

The quarter was shaped by handovers rather than fresh launches. Developers delivered 10,105 units across 24 projects while launching just 3,174 units over 17 projects — a launch-to-delivery ratio of 0.3 and a net 6,931 more homes completed than started. With completions far outstripping new supply, the pipeline of fresh inventory thinned even as demand rebounded.

Selected launches

• Azizi Riviera 31 – Al Merkadh (Azizi), 135 units
• Murano Residence 5 – Jabal Ali First (Ghreiwati), 383 units
• Elysee Ii By Pantheon – Al Barsha South Fourth (Pantheon), 162 units
• Damac Hills-Bel Air – Al Hebiah Third (Damac), 215 units
• Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum City , District One Phase Iii , Residences 11 – Al Merkadh (Meydan), 240 units
• Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum City, District One Phase Iii, Residences 8 – Al Merkadh (Meydan), 129 units
• The Haven Residences – Al Barsha South Fourth (Metrical), 162 units
• Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum City , District One Phase Iii , Residences 18 – Al Merkadh (Meydan), 42 units
• Nobles – Business Bay (Tiger), 584 units
• Binghatti Gate – Al Barsha South Fourth (Binghatti), 132 units
• … and 7 further projects

Selected completions

• Aria – Al Barsha South Fourth (Grovy), 125 units
• Damac Hills (2) - Mimosa – Madinat Hind 4 (Damac), 338 units
• Damac Hills (2) - Basswood – Madinat Hind 4 (Damac), 419 units
• Creekside 18 Podium – Dubai Creek Harbour (Emaar), 554 units
• Signature Livings - South – Al Barsha South Fourth (Green Emirates), 292 units
• Bloom Towers C – Al Barsha South Fourth (Bloom Property), 944 units
• Sls Dubai – Business Bay (Wow Development), 1,307 units
• Sidra 3 – Hadaeq Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid (Emaar), 339 units
• Court – Business Bay (Tanmiyat), 271 units
• 2020 Marquis – Al Barsha South 3 (2020 Holdings), 150 units
• … and 14 further projects

Most expensive sales

Top apartment sales

1. AED 43,500,000 – Palme Couture Residences, Palm Jumeirah
2. AED 33,000,000 – Bulgari Residences 2, Jumeirah Bay Islands
3. AED 17,468,000 – Bulgari Residences 6, Jumeirah Bay Islands
4. AED 15,200,000 – Serenia Residences Building B, Palm Jumeirah
5. AED 14,850,000 – The Address Jbr 2 (Jumeirah Gate Tower 2), Marsa Dubai

Top villa sales

1. AED 68,000,000 – Emirates Living
2. AED 49,800,000 – Hadaeq Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid
3. AED 45,000,000 – Palm Jumeirah
4. AED 35,000,000 – Al Merkadh
5. AED 25,260,000 – Me'Aisem First

Notes on methodology

Scope. The headline totals and the category table include every property category in the data, Plot and Building among them. The primary/resale split, top-area rankings and the year-on-year series relate to Apartment, Villa and Commercial alone, so those numbers are intentionally smaller than the headline and should not be summed across sections.

Rounding. The headline totals are the authoritative rounded values. Category-level breakdowns are rounded on their own and may not add up precisely to the headline.

Definitions. Price figures are medians rather than averages. Year-on-year sets the period against the matching period a year before. All values are in AED; areas in square feet.