Dubai Real Estate Market Report — October, 2021

Dubai Real Estate Market Report – October 2021

October 2021 sat firmly inside the first full post-lockdown year, and the figures read like a market that had thrown off the prior year's standstill. As pandemic curbs loosened and overseas buyers came back, Dubai booked 5,359 property transactions worth AED 13.13 billion across all property types, at a median of AED 1,000/sqft.

Zooming in on the apartment, villa and commercial segments, the 5,108 deals were 64% ahead of October 2020 and the AED 11.50 billion they accounted for rose 111% year on year — both the best October readings the market has ever produced. The rebound reached across the board, but one corner clearly set the pace.

Headline figures

Year-on-year performance by category

Apartments powered the expansion. The segment recorded 3,230 sales — 1,156 more than the year before, a 56% rise and the highest October volume since 2015 — as the AED 5.97 billion transacted more than doubled, up 118% year on year. Pricing strengthened in tandem with volume: the median reached AED 1,271/sqft, 27% over October 2020 and 7% above the 2014 base, with a typical ticket of AED 1,055,499, itself 17% higher than a year earlier.

On volume, villas ran hotter still. Their 1,634 transactions were up 71% — a rise of 678 deals — the highest October villa volume in the eight-year series. Value climbed 106% to AED 5.28 billion. The price line is what catches the eye: at AED 809/sqft the villa median rose 14% year on year and sits 15% above 2014, its best October showing since 2016, while the median villa ticket of AED 1,897,388 was 10% up on last October.

Commercial was the smallest segment yet delivered the sharpest volume swing, its 244 deals — 153 more than a year earlier — a 168% surge that made for the busiest October since 2014. Value rose 86% to AED 247.88 million. Prices recovered too, the median reaching AED 729/sqft, up 19% year on year and the highest October figure since 2018; still, at 34% under the 2014 base, commercial remains the one part of the market trading below its starting point. The median commercial ticket nudged up 3% to AED 670,991.

Every category, including plots and buildings

Beyond the three core segments, land traded briskly: 251 plot transactions brought in AED 1.63 billion at a median of AED 348/sqft. With a typical plot ticket of AED 2,678,000, land carried the heaviest median price tag of any category even while trading at the lowest rate per square foot — a reminder that the headline totals lean on developable land as much as on built product.

Primary versus resale

New-build sales set the pace. Primary deals made up 66% of volume and 68% of value — 3,351 transactions worth AED 7.78 billion — against 1,757 resale deals worth AED 3.72 billion, or 34% of volume and 32% of value. That the secondary market's value share came in just under its volume share points to off-plan launches skewing toward the pricier end of the ledger.

Where the activity was

Waterfront and established districts drew the most capital. Marsa Dubai led by value at AED 1.28 billion, just ahead of Downtown Dubai's AED 1.15 billion, then Hadaeq Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid at AED 978.85 million, Al Hebiah Fourth at AED 844.20 million and Dubai Creek Harbour at AED 730.10 million. Volume shuffled the order: Business Bay was busiest with 507 deals, ahead of Marsa Dubai's 489, with Wadi Al Safa 5 (327), Al Yufrah 1 (316) and Al Hebiah Fourth (285) completing the leaders — Marsa Dubai and Al Hebiah Fourth the only two areas to feature on both lists.

Rental market

The leasing market mirrored the rebound, apartments by some way the largest slice: 13,891 new apartment contracts (up 20.54%) plus 7,838 renewals (up 14.76%). Yet headline apartment rents scarcely shifted — the median new lease held flat at AED 40,000, while renewals eased 7.58% to AED 46,200, suggesting supply kept pricing in check even as demand grew. Villas were almost the reverse: new-lease volume fell 18.16% to 1,262 contracts, but the median new villa rent rose 5.87% to AED 121,750 and renewals jumped 35.85% as sitting tenants held their ground. Commercial leasing firmed all round, with new contracts up 30.03% and their median rent up 15.38% to AED 75,000.

Supply

Developers leaned hard into the recovery. October brought 5,834 newly launched units across 16 projects against just 560 completed units from 2 projects — roughly 10.4 units launched for each one delivered, a net 5,274 more units launched than handed over. The pipeline was refilling far faster than it was clearing, in line with the primary market's hold on activity.

Launched

• The Pulse- Beachfront – Dubai South (Dubai South), 291 units
• Prime Residency 3 – Jabal Ali First (Prescott), 294 units
• Damac Lagoons - Santorini (3) – Al Hebiah Fifth (Damac), 96 units
• Chaimaa Avenue 2 – Al Barsha South Fourth (Deva), 93 units
• Mr. C Residences Jumeirah - Block B3 – Jumeirah Second (Alta), 46 units
• The Valley - Talia – Al Yufrah 1 (Emaar), 330 units
• Jebel Ali Village – Jabal Ali First (Nakheel), 278 units
• Arabian Ranches Lll - Elie Saab – Wadi Al Safa 5 (Emaar), 129 units
• Damac Lagoons - Santorini (1) – Al Hebiah Fifth (Damac), 459 units
• Azizi Riviera Beachfront - Tower C – Al Merkadh (Azizi), 1,219 units
• Damac Lagoons - Santorini (2) – Al Hebiah Fifth (Damac), 388 units
• Cf 2 – Al Wasl (Meydan), 456 units
• Kensington Waters B – Al Merkadh (Ellington), 311 units
• Five Luxe – Marsa Dubai (Devco), 543 units
• Skyz By Danube – Al Barsha South 3 (Danube), 827 units
• The Pulse Villas 2 – Dubai South (Dubai South), 74 units

Delivered

• K1 – Wadi Al Safa 5 (Arabian Gulf), 147 units
• Damac Hills (2) - Centaury – Madinat Hind 4 (Damac), 413 units

Most expensive sales

Top apartment sales

1. AED 21,778,888 – Palace Beach Residence Tower 2, Marsa Dubai
2. AED 18,545,888 – Palace Beach Residence Tower 1, Marsa Dubai
3. AED 17,600,000 – Bulgari Residences 2, Jumeirah Bay Islands
4. AED 16,800,000 – Balqis Residence - Beach Villas, Palm Jumeirah
5. AED 14,300,000 – Bluewaters Residences 4, Marsa Dubai

Top villa sales

1. AED 54,210,000 – Palm Jumeirah
2. AED 47,417,333 – Hadaeq Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid
3. AED 41,000,000 – Emirates Living
4. AED 30,462,000 – Al Merkadh
5. AED 30,000,000 – Me'Aisem First

Notes on methodology

Scope. Headline totals and the category table cover every property category recorded in the data, including Plot and Building. The primary/resale split, top-area rankings and the year-on-year series cover Apartment, Villa and Commercial only, so those figures are deliberately smaller than the headline and should not be added across sections.

Rounding. Headline totals are the authoritative rounded figures. Category-level breakdowns are rounded independently and may not sum exactly to the headline.

Definitions. Price figures are medians, not averages. Year-on-year compares the period against the same period one year earlier. All values in AED; areas in square feet.