Dubai Real Estate Market Report — March, 2021

Dubai Real Estate Market Report – March 2021

March 2021 delivered the first clean reading of Dubai's property market after a full year of pandemic disruption, and the figures confirmed a decisive rebound. Set against a March 2020 base that lockdown's onset had flattened, apartment, villa and commercial sales combined reached 4,320 transactions worth AED 8.64 billion — volume up 49% and value up 65% year on year.

Counting every property type, plots and buildings included, the month tallied 4,572 transactions worth AED 10.71 billion at a median of AED 926/sqft. The recovery was wide-ranging, but its composition — climbing deal counts alongside a mixed pricing picture — is where the more revealing story lies.

Headline figures

Year-on-year performance by category

Apartments did the heavy lifting through sheer scale. The segment logged 2,964 sales, its highest March volume since 2017 and 690 more than a year earlier, a 30% gain that anchored the market's expansion. Value rose faster still, up 42% to AED 4.57 billion, and the median ticket nudged up 4% to AED 1,000,000. Yet the rate story pointed the other way: the median sat at AED 1,068/sqft, down 12% year on year — the lowest March price per square foot since 2016, and 16% below the 2014 benchmark. Buyers returned in numbers, but they did so at softer per-foot pricing.

Villas were the month's true standout. Transactions more than doubled to 1,164 — up 126% and the highest March volume in the eight-year series — while value climbed 102% to AED 3.86 billion. Crucially, and in contrast to apartments, villa pricing strengthened: the median hit AED 741/sqft, up 11% and the highest March figure since 2018, leaving it broadly flat against 2014 at -1%. The median villa ticket held at AED 1,997,000. The post-lockdown hunger for space was more evident here than anywhere else in the market.

Commercial completed the recovery. At 192 deals the segment posted its highest March volume since 2017, a 61% jump, while value more than doubled — up 113% to AED 209.45 million on a 73-deal increase over the prior year. Pricing kept a positive line, the median at AED 667/sqft, up 7%, even as it stayed 41% below its 2014 level. Together, the three categories moved the same way on volume but parted on price: villa and commercial per-foot values rose while apartments continued to slide.

Every category, including plots and buildings

Beyond the three core segments, plots were anything but an afterthought: 250 land transactions changed hands for AED 2.02 billion at a median ticket of AED 2,825,000, well above the typical apartment or villa deal and a marker of the same land-and-space demand fuelling the villa surge. Two building sales contributed a further AED 47.39 million.

Primary versus resale

New-build and secondary sales were closely balanced. Primary (developer) deals accounted for 56% of volume and 53% of value — 2,438 transactions worth AED 4.54 billion — while resale made up the remaining 44% of volume and 47% of value, or 1,882 deals worth AED 4.10 billion. The tell is that resale's share of value ran three points above its share of volume, a sign that secondary-market transactions carried a higher average price than primary ones.

Where the activity was

Geographically, value and volume settled in different places. Palm Jumeirah led on value with AED 1.30 billion despite never entering the busiest districts, the signature of its ultra-prime tickets. Marsa Dubai was the market's workhorse — second on value at AED 1.28 billion and first on volume with 505 transactions — followed by Hadaeq Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid, third on both value (AED 862.55 million) and volume (337). Downtown Dubai (AED 518.40 million) and Business Bay completed the value leaders, while Business Bay's 380 deals and Al Thanyah Fifth's 314 kept transaction counts elevated.

Rental market

Leasing surged even as rents fell. New apartment contracts jumped 61.80% to 12,405 and renewals rose 27.61% to 6,849 — but median rents dropped sharply on both, down 18.09% to AED 38,500 for new leases and 18.18% to AED 45,000 on renewals. Villas again bucked the trend: new-lease median rents rose 4.35% to AED 120,000, rewarding the same demand for space seen in sales, though villa renewals softened 10.71%. Commercial rents slipped modestly, with new-lease medians down 3.45% to AED 70,000. The pattern is unmistakable — tenants arrived in large numbers, and apartment landlords met them with lower rents.

Supply

Supply tilted decisively toward completions. Developers delivered 4,839 units across 13 projects while launching just 1,585 units across 10 — a launch-to-delivery ratio of 0.3 and a net 3,254 more units delivered than launched. That wave of handovers, arriving into a market where apartment rents and per-foot prices were already easing, helps explain how deal counts could rise without pricing following.

Launched

• Azizi Riviera 31 – Al Merkadh (Azizi), 135 units
• Murano Residence 5 – Jabal Ali First (Ghreiwati), 383 units
• Damac Hills-Bel Air – Al Hebiah Third (Damac), 215 units
• Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum City , District One Phase Iii , Residences 18 – Al Merkadh (Meydan), 42 units
• Binghatti Gate – Al Barsha South Fourth (Binghatti), 132 units
• Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum City , District One Phase Iii , Residences 17 – Al Merkadh (Meydan), 42 units
• Azizi Riviera 25 – Al Merkadh (Azizi), 277 units
• Binghatti Mirage – Al Barsha South Fourth (Binghatti), 160 units
• Intima Villas – Al Hebiah Fourth (Dubai Sports City), 21 units
• La Rosa 4 – Wadi Al Safa 5 (Dubai Properties), 178 units

Delivered

• Aria – Al Barsha South Fourth (Grovy), 125 units
• Creekside 18 Podium – Dubai Creek Harbour (Emaar), 554 units
• Signature Livings - South – Al Barsha South Fourth (Green Emirates), 292 units
• Court – Business Bay (Tanmiyat), 271 units
• Damac Hills - Golf Vita - A – Al Hebiah Third (Damac), 511 units
• Damac Hills (2) - Aster – Madinat Hind 4 (Damac), 378 units
• Sol Avenue – Business Bay (Sol Properties), 324 units
• The Pulse Residence Plaza Pth – Dubai South (Dubai South), 189 units
• W Residences Dubai - The Palm – Palm Jumeirah (Asi Development), 196 units
• Azizi Shaista Residence – Jabal Ali First (Azizi), 301 units
• Mbl Residence – Al Thanyah Fifth (Mbl), 493 units
• Jumeirah Gate Tower 2 – Marsa Dubai (Emaar), 1,052 units
• Prime Views – Nad Al Sheba First (Prescott), 153 units

Most expensive sales

Top apartment sales

1. AED 21,400,000 – Palme Couture Residences, Palm Jumeirah
2. AED 17,468,000 – Bulgari Residences 6, Jumeirah Bay Islands
3. AED 14,850,000 – The Address Jbr 2 (Jumeirah Gate Tower 2), Marsa Dubai
4. AED 14,500,000 – Balqis Residence - Garden Villas, Palm Jumeirah
5. AED 14,273,000 – Bluewaters Residences 5, Marsa Dubai

Top villa sales

1. AED 68,000,000 – Emirates Living
2. AED 49,800,000 – Hadaeq Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid
3. AED 45,000,000 – Palm Jumeirah
4. AED 21,000,000 – Al Merkadh
5. AED 20,000,000 – Jumeirah First

Notes on methodology

Scope. The headline totals and the category table span every property category captured in the data, Plot and Building included. The primary/resale split, top-area rankings and the year-on-year series cover Apartment, Villa and Commercial alone, so those figures are intentionally smaller than the headline and should not be added across sections.

Rounding. The headline totals are the authoritative rounded figures. Category-level breakdowns are rounded on their own and may not sum exactly to the headline.

Definitions. Price figures are medians rather than averages. Year-on-year sets the period against the same period twelve months before. All values are in AED; areas in square feet.