Dubai Real Estate Market Report — February, 2021

Dubai Real Estate Market Report – February 2021

February 2021 marked the start of Dubai's first complete year after the pandemic lockdown, and the month can only be read against that setting: its year-on-year yardstick is February 2020, the final February before restrictions arrived. Taking in every property type, the emirate recorded 3,760 transactions worth AED 7.37 billion, at a market-wide median of AED 875 per square foot. Restricting the view to apartments, villas and commercial property, 3,547 deals worth AED 6.00 billion were booked — 12% lower by volume and 6% lower by value than that robust pre-crisis baseline.

The rebound the year would be remembered for had already begun, though not evenly. Apartments, still the largest segment by far, were correcting on price and dragged the headline down, whereas villas and commercial property captured the revival in international demand that arrived as borders reopened.

Headline figures

Year-on-year performance by category

Apartments were the source of the weakness. The segment moved 2,600 units for AED 3.18 billion, yet volume slid 15% year on year — 462 fewer sales than in February 2020 — and value dropped a sharper 23%. The strain sat in pricing: the median of AED 1,026 per square foot was 17% below the prior year and 14% beneath its 2014 mark, the weakest February figure per square foot since 2016. The typical apartment ticket softened 11% to AED 888,000. The premium end still belonged to Palm Jumeirah, where the month's biggest apartment sale settled at AED 15,000,000 in Palme Couture Residences.

Villas ran the other way. Volume eased 6% to 784 sales — 54 down on a year earlier — but value rose 24% to AED 2.64 billion, as purchasers reached for markedly larger homes: the median villa ticket leapt 79% to AED 2,812,500 while price per square foot advanced just 3% to AED 725, level with 2014. That divergence between a modest per-foot shift and a soaring typical ticket is the hallmark of the post-lockdown flight to space, and it was clearest at the summit of the market, where a AED 36,700,000 villa in Emirates Living topped every residential sale for the month.

Commercial property was the sole category to expand outright. Deals increased 27% to 163 and value jumped 73% to AED 178.75 million, with the median ticket climbing 8% to AED 650,000; per-square-foot pricing was steady at AED 693, albeit still 39% under its 2014 level. It stays a slim portion of the market, but its trajectory — more transactions and more value — set it apart from a residential scene still searching for a floor.

Every category, including plots and buildings

Outside the three core segments, land traded actively: 212 plot transactions added AED 1.35 billion, at a median of AED 475 per square foot and a typical ticket of AED 2,518,000, and one building sold for AED 15.20 million. Plots explain most of the gap between the all-property total and the narrower apartment-villa-commercial figure — a reminder that developer and investor land buying stayed lively even as end-user apartment demand cooled.

Primary versus resale

The division between new and secondary sales was finely matched but leaned in opposing directions. Off-plan and primary sales made up 53% of volume — 1,896 deals worth AED 2.87 billion — yet only 48% of value. Resale did the inverse: 47% of transactions, 1,651 deals, but 52% of value at AED 3.14 billion. Put simply, the secondary market was smaller in number but handled the heavier-ticket business, a five-point gap between its share of value and its share of volume.

Where the activity was

Activity gathered where it usually does. On value, Marsa Dubai led with AED 655.59 million, ahead of Business Bay on AED 519.84 million and Palm Jumeirah on AED 443.84 million, with the villa districts of Al Hebiah Fourth (AED 435.07 million) and Al Merkadh (AED 408.40 million) rounding out the top five. By deal count Business Bay was busiest with 405 transactions, then Marsa Dubai (317), Al Barsha South Fourth (242), Al Thanyah Fifth (215) and Al Hebiah Fourth (203) — Business Bay, Marsa Dubai and Al Hebiah Fourth each appearing in the top five on both value and volume.

Rental market

Leasing signalled returning occupiers even while rents stayed soft. New apartment contracts surged 29.28% to 10,975, but the median new-lease rent dropped 16.67% to AED 40,000 (AED 47 per square foot, down 17.54%); renewals held broadly steady in number at 5,983, at median rents of AED 47,000, down 16.11%. Villas were leased in rising numbers on both measures — 1,207 new contracts (up 9.73%) and 1,192 renewals (up 28.31%) — with the median new-villa rent unchanged at AED 115,000. Commercial leasing contributed 1,332 new contracts (up 19.78%) at a median of AED 65,000. The theme held throughout: more contracts signed, but at softer headline rents than a year before.

Supply

Fresh supply was net negative on launches: developers introduced 1,373 units across five projects while 3,214 units across eight projects were completed — a launch-to-delivery ratio of 0.4 and a net 1,841 more homes delivered than launched. Handovers overtaking new starts poured finished stock into a market where apartment prices remained under strain.

Launched

• Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum City , District One Phase Iii , Residences 11 – Al Merkadh (Meydan), 240 units
• Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum City, District One Phase Iii, Residences 8 – Al Merkadh (Meydan), 129 units
• The Haven Residences – Al Barsha South Fourth (Metrical), 162 units
• Nobles – Business Bay (Tiger), 584 units
• Damac Hills - Silver Springs 3 – Al Hebiah Third (Damac), 258 units

Delivered

• Damac Hills (2) - Mimosa – Madinat Hind 4 (Damac), 338 units
• Damac Hills (2) - Basswood – Madinat Hind 4 (Damac), 419 units
• Bloom Towers C – Al Barsha South Fourth (Bloom Property), 944 units
• Sidra 3 – Hadaeq Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid (Emaar), 339 units
• 2020 Marquis – Al Barsha South 3 (2020 Holdings), 150 units
• Royal Amwaj Residences South – Palm Jumeirah (Seven Tides), 550 units
• Samana Greens – Al Barsha South 3 (Samana), 122 units
• Park Point Building D – Hadaeq Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid (Emaar), 352 units

Most expensive sales

Top apartment sales

1. AED 15,000,000 – Palme Couture Residences, Palm Jumeirah
2. AED 12,609,999 – The Residence At Marina Gate 2, Marsa Dubai
3. AED 12,000,000 – Oceana Southern, Palm Jumeirah
4. AED 10,500,000 – Five At Palm Jumeirah Dubai, Palm Jumeirah
5. AED 9,200,000 – Oceana Caribbean, Palm Jumeirah

Top villa sales

1. AED 36,700,000 – Emirates Living
2. AED 35,000,000 – Al Merkadh
3. AED 25,260,000 – Me'Aisem First
4. AED 18,200,000 – Hadaeq Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid
5. AED 16,500,000 – Palm Jumeirah

Notes on methodology

Scope. The headline totals and the category table span every property category captured in the data, Plot and Building included. The primary/resale split, top-area rankings and the year-on-year series cover Apartment, Villa and Commercial alone, so those figures are intentionally smaller than the headline and should not be added across sections.

Rounding. The headline totals are the authoritative rounded figures. Category-level breakdowns are rounded on their own and may not sum exactly to the headline.

Definitions. Price figures are medians rather than averages. Year-on-year sets the period against the same period twelve months before. All values are in AED; areas in square feet.