Dubai Real Estate Market Report — September, 2020

Dubai Real Estate Market Report – September 2020

September 2020 sat squarely inside the COVID-19 year, after UAE movement restrictions had suspended much in-person property activity back in the spring and the market spent the second half of the year rebuilding momentum. Seen in that light, the month reads as a recovery still underway: across apartments, villas and commercial, transaction volume dipped only 2% from September 2019 to 3,547 deals, while the value of those deals in fact rose 6% to AED 5.54 billion.

Taking in every property type, plots included, the emirate registered 3,760 transactions worth AED 8.79 billion at a median of AED 885/sqft. That headline steadiness, however, hides a stark divide underneath — a retreating apartment segment balanced by a villa market operating at full tilt.

Headline figures

Year-on-year performance by category

Apartments were the month's only weak point, and they alone accounted for the overall dip. Volume fell 13% year on year to 2,276 sales — around 344 fewer deals than September 2019 — with value down a similar 12% to AED 2.68 billion. Pricing softened rather than caved in: the median held at AED 1,101/sqft, down 8% on the year and likewise 8% beneath its 2014 base. Oddly, the median apartment ticket still rose 7% to AED 857,812, a sign that the deals still completing leaned toward larger, higher-value units even as the per-foot rate eased.

Villas ran the opposite way, and theirs is the defining tale of a pandemic market where buyers valued space. Volume surged 32% to 1,146 sales — roughly 275 more than a year earlier, and the highest September volume in the 7-year series — with value up 33% to AED 2.72 billion. Prices strengthened as well: the median hit AED 741/sqft, up 5% on the year, 16% above the 2014 base and the highest September price per square foot since 2017. The lone offsetting note was a 2% slip in the median villa ticket to AED 1,590,000, which reflects a wider spread of buyers rather than any waning appetite.

Commercial, the smallest of the three, quietly built on its own gains. Its 125 deals were a 13% rise, and value grew 17% to AED 145.87 million, with the per-foot median inching up 2% to AED 728/sqft — though that remains 30% below its 2014 level. A 20% fall in the median ticket to AED 600,000 points to smaller units trading hands.

Every category, including plots and buildings

Plots were the month's single biggest source of value: 213 transactions produced AED 3.25 billion, more than either the apartment or villa segments, at a median of AED 475/sqft and a typical ticket of AED 2,600,000. That land trade is what pushes the all-property headline of AED 8.79 billion well clear of the AED 5.54 billion booked across apartments, villas and commercial alone.

Primary versus resale

Off-plan and developer sales kept anchoring the market, claiming 64% of apartment, villa and commercial volume — 2,287 deals worth AED 3.51 billion — versus 1,260 resale transactions worth AED 2.04 billion. Resale's 36% share of volume translated into a slightly larger 37% of value, a one-point gap hinting that secondary buyers were transacting at marginally higher average prices than the primary market.

Where the activity was

Al Hebiah Fourth led decisively on both counts, heading the value table at AED 727.03 million and the volume table with 539 transactions — well ahead of the field. On value it was trailed by Downtown Dubai at AED 463.99 million, Al Merkadh at AED 413.55 million, Marsa Dubai at AED 412.27 million and Business Bay at AED 325.32 million. By deal count, Marsa Dubai (248), Al Barsha South Fourth (235), Business Bay (234) and Al Merkadh (216) completed the busiest areas.

Rental market

The leasing market echoed the same split as sales: contract volumes rebounded across every segment while rents fell almost everywhere. New apartment leases climbed 26.84% to 11,820 contracts even as the median rent slid 22.22% to AED 42,000; renewals rose 14.35% to 7,403 with the median down 9.24% to AED 54,000. New villa leases jumped 42.20% to 1,732 contracts against a 14.29% rent decline to AED 120,000, and new commercial leases added 26.71% to 1,371 as their median rent dropped 23.74% to AED 60,562 — a firmly tenant-friendly market in which renters were both busier and better priced.

Supply

Supply data highlighted how cautious developers had become mid-pandemic: not one new project or unit was launched during the month, while 3,937 completed units were handed over across 13 projects. With deliveries continuing and launches on hold, existing inventory was being absorbed even as no fresh stock joined the pipeline.

Most expensive sales

Top apartment sales

1. AED 19,260,888 – Address Residences Sky View, Downtown Dubai
2. AED 10,560,000 – The Address Jbr 2 (Jumeirah Gate Tower 2), Marsa Dubai
3. AED 10,000,000 – Bridge Sky, Downtown Dubai
4. AED 9,050,000 – Bulgari Residences 3, Jumeirah Bay Islands
5. AED 6,524,777 – Park Gate Residences 2, Al Kifaf

Top villa sales

1. AED 36,800,000 – Emirates Living
2. AED 36,575,737 – Hadaeq Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid
3. AED 19,000,000 – World Islands
4. AED 18,000,000 – Palm Jumeirah
5. AED 16,061,214 – Al Merkadh

Notes on methodology

Scope. Headline totals and the category table cover every property category recorded in the data, Plot and Building included. The primary/resale split, top-area rankings and the year-on-year series cover Apartment, Villa and Commercial only, so those figures are intentionally smaller than the headline and should not be added across sections.

Rounding. Headline totals are the authoritative rounded figures. Category-level breakdowns are rounded independently and may not sum exactly to the headline.

Definitions. Price figures are medians, not averages. Year-on-year compares the period against the same period one year earlier. All values in AED; areas in square feet.