Dubai Real Estate Market Report — Q1, 2020

Dubai Real Estate Market Report – Q1 2020

On the surface, Dubai's property market opened 2020 with a strikingly solid first quarter — yet the timing tells more than the totals do. Apartments, villas and commercial property together saw 9,574 transactions close, a 17% rise on Q1 2019, worth AED 15.29 billion and likewise 17% higher than a year before. Widening the lens to every property type, plots and buildings included, the quarter reached 9,916 deals valued at AED 20.93 billion, at a median of AED 957/sqft.

What came next is the essential backdrop. The year 2020 came to be defined by the COVID-19 pandemic, and the UAE brought in movement restrictions that halted much face-to-face property activity — most sharply between March and mid-year. Q1's advance therefore mostly captures January and February trading, banked before the disruption bit right at the quarter's close, rather than any resistance to it.

Headline figures

Year-on-year performance by category

Apartments powered the expansion. At 7,339 sales, volume advanced 20% year on year — 1,245 more deals and the strongest Q1 apartment showing since 2017 — as value gained 19% to AED 9.65 billion. The rise, though, coincided with easing prices: the median came in at AED 1,175/sqft, an 8% fall and the softest Q1 reading since 2016, which left pricing essentially flat against the 2014 base (0%). The median ticket slipped 4% to AED 937,524. Put simply, buyers stepped forward as values receded rather than pushing them higher.

Villas followed much the same path, with an even clearer price signal. Sales advanced 17% to 1,846 — 264 above the year-earlier figure and, like apartments, the best Q1 since 2017 — carrying value up 19% to AED 5.29 billion. Price per square foot eased to a median of AED 682, a 3% yearly decline that stands as the lowest in the seven-year run and sits 7% under 2014 levels. The median ticket dropped 5% to AED 1,712,000, in keeping with a segment where volume plainly outran pricing.

Commercial property was the lone category to head the other way. Volume declined 25% to 389 deals and value shed 35% to AED 346.64 million, leaving it the only faller of the quarter. The retreat, however, was concentrated in activity rather than value per unit: the median commercial price firmed to AED 700/sqft, up 2%, and the median ticket nudged 2% higher to AED 600,000, though it stayed 33% below its 2014 mark.

Every category, including plots and buildings

One number reaches beyond the core categories. Plots logged only 342 transactions yet AED 5.64 billion in value — second to apartments alone and ahead of villas' AED 5.29 billion — on a median ticket of AED 4,219,256 and a median of AED 373/sqft. Since plots fall outside the apartment-villa-commercial basis, they are left out of the headline year-on-year growth numbers, but their heft explains much of the gap between the AED 20.93 billion all-property total and the AED 15.29 billion across the three main categories.

Primary versus resale

Off-plan and primary sales stayed in command, representing 70% of transactions and 72% of value — 6,748 deals worth AED 11.04 billion. Resale took the other 30% of volume but a marginally smaller 28% of value, at 2,826 transactions worth AED 4.25 billion. That two-point difference between resale's volume and value shares suggests secondary-market deals clustered at somewhat lower price points than new launches.

Where the activity was

Marsa Dubai led on each measure, heading the value table at AED 2.28 billion and the volume table with 1,001 transactions. Downtown Dubai (AED 1.79 billion) and Business Bay (AED 979.87 million) came next on value, with Al Merkadh (AED 907.20 million) and Wadi Al Safa 5 (AED 811.64 million) completing the top five. On deal count, Business Bay (771) and Downtown Dubai (690) sat behind Marsa Dubai, while Wadi Al Safa 5 (542) and Al Barsha South Fourth (541) closed out the busiest areas.

Rental market

The rental market tilted firmly toward tenants. New apartment contracts grew 4.30% to 24,645 even as the median new rent dropped 12.73% to AED 48,000; renewals rose 5.58% to 17,336 with median rents down 8.31% to AED 56,000. Villa leasing was the busiest of the lot — new contracts leapt 29.88% to 3,360 — but at markedly lower rents, the new median falling 17.86% to AED 115,000. Commercial went the other way on volume, new leases off 14.15% to 3,354, though its median new rent eased more gently, down 7.75% to AED 73,803.

Supply

Supply was tilted heavily toward completions. Developers handed over 13,875 units across 38 projects while launching a mere 4,663 units across 11 — a launch-to-delivery ratio of 0.3 and a net 9,212 more homes completed than launched. With the pandemic poised to freeze new activity, that concentration of completions would define available inventory through the disruption to come.

Selected launches

• Alexis Tower – Jabal Ali Industrial Second (Reportage), 378 units
• Creek Crescent – Dubai Creek Harbour (Emaar), 243 units
• Beach Isle Tower 2 – Marsa Dubai (Emaar), 411 units
• Creek Palace – Dubai Creek Harbour (Emaar), 354 units
• Samana Golf Avenue – Al Hebiah Second (Samana), 232 units
• Olivz Residence Block 3 – Al Warsan First (Danube), 411 units
• The V Tower – Wadi Al Safa 5 (Tiger), 370 units
• Mesk 2 – Me'Aisem First (Deyaar), 291 units
• Elan – Al Hebiah Fourth (Majid Al Futtaim), 916 units
• Noor 5 – Me'Aisem First (Nshama), 616 units
• … and 1 further projects

Selected completions

• Zhoug Guo Jia – Al Warsan First (Tianfa), 110 units
• Town Square - Rawda Apartments 2 – Al Yelayiss 2 (Nshama), 553 units
• Dania 4 – Me'Aisem First (Deyaar), 612 units
• Dezire Residences – Al Barsha South Fourth (Bluechip), 120 units
• Burj Sabah – Al Barsha South Fourth (Rsg International), 230 units
• Nasayem Avenue 3 – Mirdif (Dubai Investments), 450 units
• The Pearl – Al Jaddaf (Al Shafar), 61 units
• Urbana Stacked House Block-45 – Dubai South (Emaar), 308 units
• Acacia At Park Heights Building C – Hadaeq Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid (Emaar), 578 units
• Mag 565 – Dubai South (Mag), 1,452 units
• … and 28 further projects

Most expensive sales

Top apartment sales

1. AED 39,387,064 – The Address Jbr 1 (Jumeirah Gate Tower 1), Marsa Dubai
2. AED 25,000,000 – Five At Palm Jumeirah Dubai, Palm Jumeirah
3. AED 21,820,000 – Bulgari Residences 4, Jumeirah Bay Islands
4. AED 20,000,000 – Bluewaters Residences 9, Marsa Dubai
5. AED 18,892,888 – The Address Residence Fountain Views 3, Downtown Dubai

Top villa sales

1. AED 75,000,000 – Hadaeq Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid
2. AED 69,000,000 – Emirates Living
3. AED 48,000,000 – Um Suqaim Third
4. AED 42,800,000 – Jumeirah Bay Islands
5. AED 31,000,000 – Al Merkadh

Notes on methodology

Scope. Headline totals and the category table span every property category recorded in the data, Plot and Building included. The primary/resale split, top-area rankings and the year-on-year series cover Apartment, Villa and Commercial only, so those figures are deliberately smaller than the headline and should not be summed across sections.

Rounding. The headline totals are the authoritative rounded figures. Category-level breakdowns are rounded on their own and may not add up exactly to the headline.

Definitions. Price figures are medians rather than averages. Year-on-year sets the period against the same period a year earlier. All values are in AED; areas in square feet.