Dubai Real Estate Market Report — October, 2020

Dubai Real Estate Market Report – October 2020

October 2020 saw Dubai's property market working its way up from the sharpest setback in its recent memory. In-person dealing had been largely shut down earlier in the year by the COVID-19 pandemic, at its most severe between March and mid-year, and only a slow revival followed in the back half. By month's end the market had booked 3,322 transactions totalling AED 6.78 billion, with a median of AED 839/sqft — still plainly running short of its pre-pandemic pace.

Narrowed to the apartment, villa and commercial footing that this report is built on, the 3,121 deals logged sat 27% lower than in October 2019, while their combined AED 5.44 billion of value came in 17% softer. The distance between those two declines is the month's real narrative: transaction counts were hammered, yet the value that changed hands proved more resilient, held aloft by villas.

Headline figures

Year-on-year performance by category

The pullback was led by apartments. The segment recorded 2,074 transactions, a 30% fall year on year — 892 fewer deals and the lowest October apartment volume in the seven-year series. Value tracked it exactly, dropping 30% to AED 2.74 billion. Prices weakened in tandem: the median came to AED 1,002/sqft, 26% lower on the year and the lowest October figure since 2015, which left it 16% beneath the 2014 base. The typical apartment ticket slipped 9% to AED 900,000.

On pricing, villas ran the other way. Their volumes also fell — 956 transactions, off 20% — but value nudged 2% higher to AED 2.56 billion, and the median stood firm at AED 709/sqft, 1% up on the year and the highest October reading since 2017. The median villa ticket rose 12% to AED 1,720,000, a sign that the buyers still transacting were leaning toward bigger, higher-value homes as remote working reshaped demand.

Commercial, the smallest of the trio, shrank the most. Only 91 transactions went through, a 33% decline and the lowest October commercial volume in the seven-year series. Value dropped 18% to AED 133.47 million, while the median gave up 14% to AED 615/sqft — the lowest October price per square foot on record and a full 44% under the 2014 base. Ordered by value, the month lined up apartments first, then villas, then plots, with commercial trailing.

Every category, including plots and buildings

Plots fell outside the three headline groups yet pulled genuine weight: 201 transactions produced AED 1.33 billion, ranking land third by value behind apartments and villas and well clear of commercial. With a median ticket of AED 2,518,000, plots posted the largest median ticket of any category this month, even though their AED 474/sqft median was the lowest — a reminder that land trades on parcel size, not per-foot pricing.

Primary versus resale

Fresh supply set the pace. Primary transactions represented 58% of volume and 57% of value — 1,799 transactions worth AED 3.11 billion — leaving the resale channel with the other 1,322 deals and AED 2.33 billion, equal to 42% of volume against a marginally larger 43% of value. That almost even balance shows developers' off-plan pipeline and the secondary market moving broadly together.

Where the activity was

Measured by value, Downtown Dubai headed the list at AED 510.22 million, narrowly beating Al Hebiah Fourth on AED 509.48 million, with Marsa Dubai (AED 462.10 million), Palm Jumeirah (AED 375.11 million) and Hadaeq Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid (AED 345.63 million) completing the top five. By count, Al Hebiah Fourth was the outright leader with 370 transactions, ahead of Marsa Dubai (264) and Al Barsha South Fourth (186). Three districts — Al Hebiah Fourth, Marsa Dubai and Hadaeq Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid — feature on both the value and volume tables, marking them as the month's true focal points.

Rental market

Leasing split by segment. New apartment contracts climbed 15.61% to 11,524 and new villa contracts leapt 39.67% to 1,542, yet new commercial leases went the opposite way, sliding 14.30% to 1,169 — so the fresh-leasing upswing was residential, not across the board. Renewals were similarly uneven: apartments (+4.29%) and villas (+2.55%) advanced while commercial renewals eased 3.27%. Rents, by contrast, retreated everywhere, with the median new apartment rent falling 20% to AED 40,000 and both villa and commercial rents down by double digits — tenants held the upper hand even where demand rose.

Supply

Supply tilted decisively toward completions. Developers rolled out only 131 units from a single project, set against 2,320 units delivered across six — a launch-to-delivery ratio of 0.1 and a net of 2,189 more units delivered than launched. Handovers from earlier pipelines kept arriving even as fresh launches stayed subdued through the pandemic recovery.

Launched

• Oxford Boulevard – Al Barsha South Fourth (Deyaar), 131 units

Delivered

• Eagle Heights – Al Hebiah Fourth (Dubai Sports City), 296 units
• Arabian Gate – Nadd Hessa (Time Properties), 717 units
• The One Hotel – Business Bay (The First Group), 504 units
• Alandalus Townhouse – Me'Aisem First (Jumeirah Golf Estates), 95 units
• Glamz Residence Tower 2 – Jabal Ali First (Danube), 426 units
• The Pad – Business Bay (Beyond), 282 units

Most expensive sales

Top apartment sales

1. AED 32,482,806 – The Address Residence Fountain Views 3, Downtown Dubai
2. AED 19,251,888 – Address Residences Sky View, Downtown Dubai
3. AED 15,288,888 – The Address Residence Fountain Views 2, Downtown Dubai
4. AED 11,000,000 – Bulgari Residences 6, Jumeirah Bay Islands
5. AED 10,500,000 – Bulgari Residences 1, Jumeirah Bay Islands

Top villa sales

1. AED 46,000,000 – Jumeirah Bay Islands
2. AED 36,500,000 – Emirates Living
3. AED 22,000,000 – Me'Aisem First
4. AED 16,800,000 – Palm Jumeirah
5. AED 15,500,000 – Al Merkadh

Notes on methodology

Scope. The headline totals and the category table take in every property type present in the data, Plot and Building included. The primary/resale breakdown, the top-area rankings and the year-on-year series are limited to Apartment, Villa and Commercial, which is why those numbers are intentionally smaller than the headline and should not be summed across sections.

Rounding. The headline totals are the definitive rounded numbers. Category-level breakdowns are rounded on their own and may not add up precisely to the headline.

Definitions. Price figures refer to medians rather than averages. Year-on-year sets the period against the matching period a year before. All values are in AED and areas in square feet.