Dubai Real Estate Market Report — November, 2020

Dubai Real Estate Market Report – November 2020

By November 2020 Dubai's property market was still operating under the long shadow of the COVID-19 pandemic. Earlier movement restrictions had brought much in-person activity to a standstill through the spring, and although a gradual thaw arrived in the second half, the month's figures sat well beneath their pre-pandemic marker. Taking in every property type — apartments, villas, plots and commercial — the emirate registered 3,849 transactions worth AED 7.44 billion, at a median of AED 924/sqft.

Reduced to the apartment, villa and commercial segments, both volume and value came in 21% lower than in November 2019, a pre-COVID month. That single headline decline, though, papers over three quite different stories beneath it.

Headline figures

Year-on-year performance by category

The damage was done by apartments. The segment's 2,659 sales landed 24% short of the previous November — 839 fewer deals — while its value fell a sharper 39% to AED 3.21 billion, cementing its status as the market's chief drag. Pricing echoes the point: the median apartment changed hands at AED 1,175/sqft, down 17% year on year and 3% under the 2014 base, and the median ticket softened 14% to AED 929,703. Buyers were both thinner on the ground and paying less per home.

Villas went their own way. Volume dipped 16% to 842 sales, 163 fewer than a year before, yet total value climbed 13% to AED 2.63 billion — evidence that demand was shifting toward larger, higher-value homes. The median villa ticket leapt 21% to AED 1,907,000. That lift in ticket sizes sat alongside softer per-square-foot pricing: at AED 686/sqft, down 4% on the year and 10% below 2014, villas posted the lowest November price per square foot in the seven-year series.

Commercial was the sole bright spot, and the only category to grow. Volume rocketed 70% to 146 deals — the strongest November count since 2017 — and value more than doubled, up 143% to AED 206.49 million, on a median ticket of AED 700,000 that was itself 17% higher. Even so, pricing stayed under strain: at AED 683/sqft the segment sat 3% down on the year and a striking 41% below its 2014 level, likewise its lowest November reading in the series. The rebound was about deal count and total outlay, not unit values.

Every category, including plots and buildings

Plots completed the picture with 202 transactions worth AED 1.40 billion. At a median of AED 400/sqft they were the cheapest land per square foot, yet their median ticket of AED 2,825,000 was the biggest of any category — a reminder that land deals, however few, trade in large lots.

Primary versus resale

Developer sales continued to lead. Primary transactions made up 63% of apartment, villa and commercial volume and 57% of value — 2,283 deals worth AED 3.43 billion. Resale accounted for the remaining 37% of volume but a larger 43% of value, its 1,364 deals turning over AED 2.61 billion. That six-point gap between resale's value and volume shares points to secondary trades skewing toward pricier stock.

Where the activity was

Marsa Dubai, the Dubai Marina district, sat atop both league tables, pulling in AED 745.32 million across 459 transactions — comfortably the busiest and most valuable area on either ranking. Downtown Dubai came second by value at AED 610.18 million and also ranked fifth by volume with 196 deals, followed on the value list by Palm Jumeirah (AED 406.69 million), Emirates Living (AED 383.40 million) and Hadaeq Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid (AED 379.28 million). By raw count, Business Bay (304), Al Barsha South Fourth (257) and Al Hebiah Fourth (205) rounded out the busiest districts.

Rental market

The lettings market was a tale of mobility and discounts. New apartment contracts surged 47.85% to 12,319 and new villa contracts 52.98% to 1,568, as tenants took advantage of falling asking rents to move or trade up. Rents themselves eased broadly: the median new apartment rent fell 20% to AED 40,000, the new villa rent 8.33% to AED 110,000, and the new commercial rent 9.68% to AED 70,000. Renewals rose more modestly and their rents softened too, the exception being renewing commercial tenants, whose median stayed level at AED 80,000.

Supply

Handovers ran ahead of new launches. Developers delivered 3,095 units across eight projects while launching 2,128 units across four — a launch-to-delivery ratio of 0.7 and a net of 967 more homes delivered than launched. With completions outpacing fresh supply, the pipeline was clearing existing inventory rather than growing it.

Launched

• Rukan 3 – Wadi Al Safa 7 (Continental Investments), 1,093 units
• La Rosa 3 – Wadi Al Safa 5 (Dubai Properties), 206 units
• Harmony 3 – Al Hebiah Fourth (Majid Al Futtaim), 514 units
• Joya Blanca Residences – Al Barsha South 3 (Green Yard), 315 units

Delivered

• Elite Business Bay Residence – Business Bay (Triplanet Range), 540 units
• Harbour Views T2 – Dubai Creek Harbour (Emaar), 848 units
• The Pulse Residence Icon – Dubai South (Dubai South), 99 units
• Alandalus Building D – Me'Aisem First (Jumeirah Golf Estates), 244 units
• Park Gate Residences 4 – Al Kifaf (Wasl), 1,067 units
• Dt 1 – Downtown Dubai (Ellington), 139 units
• Chaimaa Avenue – Al Barsha South Fourth (Deva), 89 units
• Suncity Homes – Warsan Fourth (Sun And Sand Developers), 69 units

Most expensive sales

Top apartment sales

1. AED 18,892,888 – The Address Residence Fountain Views 3, Downtown Dubai
2. AED 14,500,000 – Five At Palm Jumeirah Dubai, Palm Jumeirah
3. AED 14,000,000 – Serenia Residences Building B, Palm Jumeirah
4. AED 13,095,000 – Bluewaters Residences 5, Marsa Dubai
5. AED 12,822,587 – Bluewaters Residences 4, Marsa Dubai

Top villa sales

1. AED 48,250,000 – Jumeirah Bay Islands
2. AED 48,000,000 – Emirates Living
3. AED 37,800,000 – Wadi Al Safa 3
4. AED 32,000,000 – Hadaeq Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid
5. AED 24,500,000 – Palm Jumeirah

Notes on methodology

Scope. The headline totals and the category table take in every property type present in the data, Plot and Building included. The primary/resale breakdown, the top-area rankings and the year-on-year series are limited to Apartment, Villa and Commercial, which is why those numbers are intentionally smaller than the headline and should not be summed across sections.

Rounding. The headline totals are the definitive rounded numbers. Category-level breakdowns are rounded on their own and may not add up precisely to the headline.

Definitions. Price figures refer to medians rather than averages. Year-on-year sets the period against the matching period a year before. All values are in AED and areas in square feet.