Dubai Real Estate Market Report — March, 2020

Dubai Real Estate Market Report – March 2020

March 2020 landed squarely within the acute phase of the UAE’s COVID-19 movement restrictions, when the rules limiting in-person activity choked off much of the property market’s usual foot traffic. Even so, Dubai still logged 3,021 transactions worth AED 6.88 billion across every property type, at a median of AED 1,000/sqft.

On the apartment, villa and commercial basis, volume slipped to 2,908 deals (-3% year on year), yet value rose +14% to AED 5.24 billion. That split defines the month: fewer deals, but a clear shift toward larger tickets even as the restrictions took hold.

Headline figures

Year-on-year performance by category

Apartments were the sole bright spot and the only category to advance. Volume hit 2,274 transactions (+2%), around 51 more than a year earlier and the highest March volume since 2017, while value grew +11% to AED 3.23 billion. Prices, though, moved the other way: the median came in at AED 1,213/sqft, down -8% on the year and -4% versus 2014 — the lowest March price per square foot since 2017 — and the median ticket eased -2% to AED 962,444. Put differently, growth stemmed from more deals at slimmer prices, not richer ones.

Villas led the drop in count, sliding -15% to 515 transactions, roughly 88 below the prior March. Yet the segment’s value leapt +26% to AED 1.92 billion and the median ticket jumped +18% to AED 1,989,300 — a clear move up the price ladder toward larger, higher-end homes, topped by the month’s biggest single sale at AED 48,000,000 in Um Suqaim Third. Price per square foot dipped just -2% to AED 669/sqft, but at -11% against 2014 that marks the lowest March reading in the 7-year series.

Commercial took the worst of the shutdown. Volume fell -31% to 119 transactions — the lowest March volume in the 7-year series — with value off -46% to AED 98.50 million. The median price dropped -11% to AED 623/sqft, likewise a series low and -45% under its 2014 level, while the median ticket eased -16% to AED 570,000. As the most discretionary and appointment-reliant segment, commercial was precisely where movement restrictions bit hardest.

Every category, including plots and buildings

Land stayed a heavyweight line even with fresh activity subdued. 113 plot transactions contributed AED 1.63 billion on a median ticket of AED 4,800,000 and just AED 400/sqft. Those large, low-per-foot deals bridge the all-property headline of 3,021 transactions and the 2,908 tallied across apartments, villas and commercial.

Primary versus resale

The primary market held up the month. Developer sales accounted for 70% of volume and 74% of value — 2,023 deals worth AED 3.86 billion. Resale made up 885 transactions and AED 1.38 billion, a 30% share of volume against a smaller 26% share of value. That gap means secondary trades skewed toward lower-priced units, with the heftier tickets concentrated in off-plan.

Where the activity was

Marsa Dubai headed both league tables, combining AED 904.82 million in value with 366 transactions. Downtown Dubai came next on value at AED 589.43 million, while Business Bay ranked second-busiest by count with 241 deals. Two prestige villa districts — Um Suqaim Third (AED 397.09 million) and Al Merkadh (AED 374.64 million) — forced their way into the value top five, echoing the month’s shift toward larger villa tickets.

Rental market

The rental market weakened almost everywhere. New apartment leases dropped -6.17% to 7,667 contracts as the median new rent fell -11.32% to AED 47,000; renewals fared better at AED 55,000 (-8.33%). Villas stood out on demand — new villa contracts surged +32.24% to 1,165, a clear tilt toward lower-density living, though the new-lease median still eased -19.30% to AED 115,000. Commercial leasing thinned on both new (-17.45%) and renewal (-13.71%) counts.

Supply

Supply tilted heavily to completions. Developers delivered 3,506 units across 10 projects while launching only 781 units in 2 projects — a launch-to-delivery ratio of 0.2 and a net 2,725 more units delivered than launched. With movement restrictions freezing sales galleries, new launches all but halted even as pipeline projects handed over.

Launched

• Olivz Residence Block 3 – Al Warsan First (Danube), 411 units
• The V Tower – Wadi Al Safa 5 (Tiger), 370 units

Delivered

• Dania 4 – Me'Aisem First (Deyaar), 612 units
• Nasayem Avenue 3 – Mirdif (Dubai Investments), 450 units
• The Pearl – Al Jaddaf (Al Shafar), 61 units
• Urbana Stacked House Block-45 – Dubai South (Emaar), 308 units
• Hameni – Al Barsha South Fourth (Zaya), 504 units
• Hyati Avenue – Al Barsha South Fourth (Aurora), 122 units
• Liv Residence – Marsa Dubai (Liv), 199 units
• Azizi Farishta – Jabal Ali First (Azizi), 298 units
• Spanish – Al Hebiah Fourth (Dubai Sports City), 412 units
• Al Jawhara Tower – Al Barsha South Fifth (Tiger), 540 units

Most expensive sales

Top apartment sales

1. AED 39,387,064 – The Address Jbr 1 (Jumeirah Gate Tower 1), Marsa Dubai
2. AED 21,820,000 – Bulgari Residences 4, Jumeirah Bay Islands
3. AED 18,892,888 – The Address Residence Fountain Views 3, Downtown Dubai
4. AED 15,880,000 – Bulgari Residences 6, Jumeirah Bay Islands
5. AED 15,000,000 – Palme Couture Residences, Palm Jumeirah

Top villa sales

1. AED 48,000,000 – Um Suqaim Third
2. AED 42,800,000 – Jumeirah Bay Islands
3. AED 31,000,000 – Al Merkadh
4. AED 23,000,000 – Um Al Sheif
5. AED 19,100,000 – Emirates Living

Notes on methodology

Scope. The headline totals and category table span every property category in the data, Plot and Building included. The primary/resale split, top-area rankings and year-on-year series take in Apartment, Villa and Commercial alone, so those numbers are intentionally smaller than the headline and should not be summed across sections.

Rounding. The headline totals are the definitive rounded figures. Category-level breakdowns are rounded on their own and may not add up precisely to the headline.

Definitions. Price figures are medians rather than averages. Year-on-year sets the period against the matching period twelve months earlier. All values in AED; areas in square feet.