Dubai Real Estate Market Report — July, 2020

Dubai Real Estate Market Report – July 2020

July 2020 sat firmly under the cloud of the COVID-19 pandemic. UAE movement curbs had put much face-to-face property dealing on hold, with the sharpest impact running from March into the middle of the year, and July found the market only at the first hesitant steps of a rebound. Even so, Dubai recorded 2,329 sales transactions valued at AED 4.46 billion across every property type, with a median of AED 840/sqft.

Setting plots and buildings aside, the apartment, villa and commercial segments combined logged 2,140 deals worth AED 3.43 billion — each down 40% versus July 2019. The retreat spanned the board, though it was apartments that led the fall.

Headline figures

Year-on-year performance by category

Apartments pulled the market down. Volume slid 40% to 1,561 transactions — 1,056 short of a year before and the weakest July tally across the seven-year series — while value sank a sharper 48% to AED 1.83 billion. The median stood at AED 980/sqft, off 26% year on year and 11% under the 2014 base, the lowest July per-square-foot figure yet seen. The typical apartment sale eased 18% to AED 820,888. Since apartments account for most of Dubai's deal flow, their softness dictated the mood for the entire month.

Villas registered the identical 40% fall in volume, to 515 sales, but proved far more durable on value, which dipped 26% to AED 1.50 billion. Per-square-foot pricing gave up 17% to AED 586 — a series-low July reading, and 20% beneath 2014 — yet the median villa ticket in fact rose 31% to AED 2,100,000. With area-based pricing lower even as the typical deal grew pricier, the transactions that did complete plainly leaned toward bigger, higher-value homes: a trend worth tracking as the pandemic redrew buyer priorities.

Commercial was the stillest segment, with 64 transactions — down 33%, itself the lowest July volume on the series — worth AED 99.75 million, off 31%. At AED 651/sqft its median price fell 14% year on year, though the longer view is harsher: commercial per-square-foot values now sit 43% below their 2014 mark, a much deeper multi-year decline than apartments' 11% or villas' 20%. The median commercial ticket slid 30% to AED 588,700.

Every category, including plots and buildings

Plots contributed a sizeable slice of the month's value: 189 plot sales produced AED 1.03 billion at a median of AED 467/sqft, with a median plot ticket of AED 2,398,000. That land trade helped soften the headline figure even while the built-property segments shrank.

Primary versus resale

New (primary) sales kept the bulk of activity, making up 58% of both volume and value — 1,249 deals worth AED 1.99 billion. Resale accounted for the other 42% on each metric, with 891 transactions summing to AED 1.44 billion. Tellingly, resale's value share equalled its volume share precisely, so neither channel claimed a pricing edge over the other this month.

Where the activity was

On value, Palm Jumeirah topped the list at AED 315.64 million, narrowly ahead of Downtown Dubai on AED 310.00 million, with Marsa Dubai (AED 271.83 million) and Hadaeq Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid (AED 262.23 million) not far off. By transaction count the picture shifted: Al Yelayiss 2 headed the volume ranking with 210 transactions — while still placing fifth by value at AED 191.63 million — trailed by Marsa Dubai (177), Al Barsha South Fourth (163), and Business Bay and Al Warsan First (116 apiece). Premium waterfront value gathered on the Palm and Downtown, whereas higher-volume, lower-ticket dealing pooled in the outlying communities.

Rental market

Leasing painted a contrast to sales. New apartment contracts climbed 11.99% to 9,891 and renewals added 7.72% to 6,919, even as new-lease median rents dropped 20.75% to AED 42,000 — tenants were busy exactly because rents were sliding. Villas showed the biggest volume shift, with new contracts up 46.90% to 1,873 and renewals up 41.95%, as households sought more room during the pandemic; villa new-lease rents nonetheless fell 25% to AED 105,000. Commercial bucked the trend, with new contracts down 18.66% to 1,033 and rents off 15.13% to AED 62,000, mirroring muted business demand.

Supply

Supply activity nearly stopped. No new projects launched over the month and no units reached the market, while merely two completions handed over 381 units. With handovers outrunning launches and nothing feeding the pipeline, the pandemic's brake on new development was unmistakable.

Most expensive sales

Top apartment sales

1. AED 21,000,000 – Five At Palm Jumeirah Dubai, Palm Jumeirah
2. AED 12,052,200 – Balqis Residence 1, Palm Jumeirah
3. AED 12,019,888 – The Address Residence Fountain Views 3, Downtown Dubai
4. AED 8,600,000 – The Residences South, Palm Jumeirah
5. AED 6,430,888 – The Address Residence Fountain Views 2, Downtown Dubai

Top villa sales

1. AED 33,000,000 – Palm Jumeirah
2. AED 24,528,142 – Hadaeq Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid
3. AED 23,000,000 – Emirates Living
4. AED 13,500,000 – Al Merkadh
5. AED 9,200,000 – Wadi Al Safa 3

Notes on methodology

Scope. Headline totals and the category table span every property category captured in the data, Plot and Building included. The primary/resale split, top-area rankings and the year-on-year series cover Apartment, Villa and Commercial only, so those numbers are intentionally smaller than the headline and should not be summed across sections.

Rounding. Headline totals are the authoritative rounded figures. Category-level breakdowns are rounded on their own and may not add up exactly to the headline.

Definitions. Price figures are medians rather than averages. Year-on-year sets the period against the matching period a year earlier. All values in AED; areas in square feet.