Dubai Real Estate Market Report — January, 2020

Dubai Real Estate Market Report – January 2020

Dubai rounded off January 2020 on firm footing, a month that with hindsight stands as the market’s final untainted reading before COVID-19 overturned the year. Combining apartments, villas and commercial, 2,638 deals were completed, a +9% gain over January 2019, though the AED 3.68 billion they raised eased -2% as per-square-foot prices retreated. With plots added in, the emirate booked 2,736 transactions worth AED 4.84 billion at a blended AED 864/sqft.

The month’s profile was uneven: apartments carried the load while villas and commercial edged down. The UAE’s movement restrictions that would freeze much in-person activity remained weeks off and only tightened sharply from March, so these numbers capture demand before the disruption rather than as a result of it.

Headline figures

Year-on-year performance by category

Apartments were the engine. Turnover advanced to 2,003 deals — a +15% rise and 262 above the previous January — while value gained +7% to AED 2.29 billion, the sole category to improve on either count. Cheaper stock underpinned that expansion: at AED 1,009/sqft the median was -23% lower year on year, the softest January per-square-foot figure in the seven-year series, though the median ticket proved far more resilient at AED 784,888 (-4%). Set against the 2014 base the per-foot number is down just -2%, so a lengthy plateau closed with an abrupt one-year pullback that buyers plainly met with volume.

Villas told the opposite story. With 493 deals the tally was near-static — a mere -2%, or 11 below the year-earlier figure — yet value dropped -14% to AED 1.25 billion. The median of AED 662/sqft slipped -6% to its own weakest January in the seven-year series, resting -9% beneath 2014, while the typical ticket eased -4% to AED 1,727,000. Demand, in short, held firm but changed hands at noticeably lower prices.

Commercial trailed on count but stood apart on price. Just 142 deals were completed, down -17% (29 below last January) and the thinnest January volume in the seven-year series, with value lower by -18% at AED 144.55 million. Even so, it was the lone type where prices strengthened: the median rose +2% to AED 700/sqft and the median ticket climbed +6% to AED 653,551 — although that per-foot level still sits -28% under its 2014 mark, the steepest long-run decline of any segment.

Every category, including plots and buildings

Plots were the understated heavyweight. A mere 98 transactions produced AED 1.16 billion — almost equalling the whole villa segment’s value from a sliver of the deal count — on a median ticket of AED 3,728,856 and the market’s lowest per-foot rate of AED 400/sqft. It is this land activity that pushes the all-property totals above the apartment-villa-commercial base.

Primary versus resale

New-build sales led the way, taking 65% of volume and 63% of value — 1,720 deals worth AED 2.33 billion. Resale claimed the remaining 35% of transactions but a marginally higher 37% of value from 918 deals worth AED 1.35 billion, a two-point gap that flags the average secondary-market sale as the dearer of the pair.

Where the activity was

Marsa Dubai headed both league tables, first on value at AED 544.81 million and first on volume with 264 deals. On value it was trailed by Downtown Dubai (AED 335.15 million), Business Bay (AED 290.01 million), Wadi Al Safa 5 (AED 266.33 million) and Emirates Living (AED 190.59 million). The volume ranking reveals where the cheaper churn lay: Al Barsha South 3 (255) and Al Barsha South Fourth (155) each featured on deal count without appearing on the value leaderboard.

Rental market

Leasing counts climbed while rents receded almost across the board. New apartment contracts hit 8,489 (+8.26%) even as their median rent fell -10.91% to AED 49,000; new villa contracts leapt +23.45% to 1,095 as the median villa rent gave way -16.43% to AED 117,000. Commercial was the exception on activity, its new contracts off -15.63% to 1,220 at a median AED 75,000 (-11.76%). Renewals proved sturdier by count — apartments 5,924 (+2.37%), villas 970 (+10.48%), commercial 1,756 (+3.72%) — yet renewal rents dipped in all three, leaving a firmly tenant-friendly market.

Supply

Handovers overshadowed new launches. Developers completed 3,838 units across 10 projects while starting just 1,584 across 4, a 0.4 launch-to-delivery ratio that meant 2,254 more units were finished than begun — swelling standing supply precisely as sale and rental prices eased.

Launched

• Alexis Tower – Jabal Ali Industrial Second (Reportage), 378 units
• Beach Isle Tower 2 – Marsa Dubai (Emaar), 411 units
• Creek Palace – Dubai Creek Harbour (Emaar), 354 units
• Burj Crown – Downtown Dubai (Emaar), 441 units

Delivered

• Acacia At Park Heights Building C – Hadaeq Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid (Emaar), 578 units
• Reem - Mira Oasis Community Phase 3 – Al Yelayiss 1 (Emaar), 483 units
• Ar Ii - Reem Community – Wadi Al Safa 7 (Emaar), 216 units
• The One Jbr – Marsa Dubai (Dubai Properties), 170 units
• Sobha Hartland Greens- Phase Ii (Building 02) – Al Merkadh (Sobha), 879 units
• Topaz Residences 3 – Nadd Hessa (Ggico), 112 units
• Global Golf Residence 2 – Al Hebiah Fourth (Dubai Sports City), 351 units
• Janayen Avenue 2 – Mirdif (Dubai Investments), 391 units
• Binghatti Stars – Nadd Hessa (Binghatti), 362 units
• Azizi Samia Residence – Jabal Ali First (Azizi), 296 units

Most expensive sales

Top apartment sales

1. AED 25,000,000 – Five At Palm Jumeirah Dubai, Palm Jumeirah
2. AED 10,880,000 – Bluewaters Residences 1, Marsa Dubai
3. AED 7,203,000 – Bulgari Residences 1, Jumeirah Bay Islands
4. AED 6,171,888 – The Address Residences Dubai Opera T1, Downtown Dubai
5. AED 5,839,000 – Bluewaters Residences 9, Marsa Dubai

Top villa sales

1. AED 36,100,000 – Emirates Living
2. AED 18,362,500 – Palm Jumeirah
3. AED 13,861,344 – Hadaeq Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid
4. AED 12,500,000 – Al Merkadh
5. AED 11,847,000 – Al Hebiah Third

Notes on methodology

Scope. The headline totals and category table span every property category in the data, Plot and Building included. The primary/resale split, top-area rankings and year-on-year series take in Apartment, Villa and Commercial alone, so those numbers are intentionally smaller than the headline and should not be summed across sections.

Rounding. The headline totals are the definitive rounded figures. Category-level breakdowns are rounded on their own and may not add up precisely to the headline.

Definitions. Price figures are medians rather than averages. Year-on-year sets the period against the matching period twelve months earlier. All values in AED; areas in square feet.