Dubai Real Estate Market Report — February, 2020

Dubai Real Estate Market Report – February 2020

February 2020 was the final full month before the pandemic remade Dubai real estate, and the sales market went into it firing on all cylinders. The emirate posted 4,159 transactions worth AED 9.21 billion, with the apartment, villa and commercial segments together delivering 4,028 deals worth AED 6.36 billion — a 45% jump in volume and a 35% lift in value versus February 2019.

The movement restrictions that would halt much in-person property activity from March onward were still to come, and the month reads like a portrait of a market at its cyclical top: deal counts soaring while prices stayed flat to soft. Across all property types, the median sale landed at AED 984/sqft.

Headline figures

Year-on-year performance by category

Apartments powered the expansion. The segment recorded 3,062 sales, up 44% year on year and 932 deals more than February 2019 — the highest February volume in the seven-year series. Value rose 36% to AED 4.14 billion. The price side, however, was flat: the median stayed at AED 1,233/sqft, unchanged on the year and only 3% above the 2014 base, while the median ticket slipped 4% to AED 1,000,000. This was growth driven by turnover, not by rising values.

Villas expanded even faster in percentage terms. Volume climbed 76% to 838 deals, 363 more than a year before and the strongest February since 2017, carrying value up 42% to AED 2.12 billion. But the segment’s pricing was the softest on record: at AED 704/sqft the median was down 5% year on year, the lowest February price per square foot in the seven-year series and 3% below the 2014 base. The median villa ticket dropped 18% to AED 1,571,944, evidence that the surge in activity clustered in more affordable stock.

Commercial was the outlier and the only category to fall. Deals fell 26% to 128 and value sank 40% to AED 103.58 million. The internal detail cuts against that decline, though — the median price nudged up 1% to AED 692/sqft and the median ticket leapt 32% to AED 600,000, implying that a smaller pool of larger transactions sustained the segment while smaller deals evaporated. Even then, at AED 692/sqft commercial pricing sits 39% below its 2014 level.

Every category, including plots and buildings

Plots were the month’s understated heavyweight. Just 131 registrations produced AED 2.85 billion — the second-largest value pool of any property type — at a median of AED 351/sqft and a median ticket of AED 4,203,000, reflecting the sizeable land parcels that trade in this segment.

Primary versus resale

New-build activity ruled. Primary sales made up 75% of volume and 76% of value — 3,005 deals worth AED 4.85 billion — while the resale market added 1,023 transactions worth AED 1.52 billion, or 25% of volume and 24% of value. The near-matching volume and value shares suggest a resale market trading in much the same price bands as the primary one.

Where the activity was

Two districts set the tempo. Downtown Dubai led by value at AED 862.65 million, trailed narrowly by Marsa Dubai (Dubai Marina) at AED 827.04 million — and Marsa Dubai headed the volume table with 371 transactions to Downtown’s 341. Business Bay (328 deals, AED 386.49 million), Al Merkadh (279 deals, AED 420.30 million) and Wadi Al Safa 5 (263 deals, AED 387.22 million) completed the leaders, with Al Merkadh outperforming its transaction count on value.

Rental market

The leasing market ran counter to sales: more contracts, lower rents. New apartment leases grew 11.45% to 8,489 even as the median rent fell 12.73% to AED 48,000, and renewals rose 23.95% to 6,045. Villas saw new contracts leap 34.31% to 1,100 while the median new rent dropped 17.86% to AED 115,000. Commercial was mixed — new leases eased 9.08% to 1,112 but renewals gained 7.52% to 1,515 — and across every segment median rents were lower year on year, a clearly tenant-favourable backdrop.

Supply

Deliveries far outweighed launches. Developers handed over 6,531 units across 18 projects while launching only 2,298 units across 5 — a launch-to-delivery ratio of 0.4 and a net 4,233 more homes delivered than launched, feeding completed stock into the market faster than new supply arrived.

Launched

• Creek Crescent – Dubai Creek Harbour (Emaar), 243 units
• Samana Golf Avenue – Al Hebiah Second (Samana), 232 units
• Mesk 2 – Me'Aisem First (Deyaar), 291 units
• Elan – Al Hebiah Fourth (Majid Al Futtaim), 916 units
• Noor 5 – Me'Aisem First (Nshama), 616 units

Delivered

• Zhoug Guo Jia – Al Warsan First (Tianfa), 110 units
• Town Square - Rawda Apartments 2 – Al Yelayiss 2 (Nshama), 553 units
• Dezire Residences – Al Barsha South Fourth (Bluechip), 120 units
• Burj Sabah – Al Barsha South Fourth (Rsg International), 230 units
• Mag 565 – Dubai South (Mag), 1,452 units
• Sol Bay – Business Bay (Sol Properties), 331 units
• Jumeirah Golf Estates - Hillside – Me'Aisem First (Chi Sol Investments), 20 units
• Hayat Boulevard-2b – Al Yelayiss 2 (Nshama), 684 units
• The Pulse Residence (B2) – Dubai South (Dubai South), 232 units
• Resortz Residence Block 3 – Al Barsha South 3 (Danube), 444 units
• Mudon Views – Al Hebiah Sixth (Dubai Properties), 182 units
• Sobha Hartland Villas Phase 1 – Al Merkadh (Sobha), 50 units
• Genesis – Al Barsha South 3 (Meraki Developers), 200 units
• Sidra 2 – Hadaeq Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid (Emaar), 422 units
• The Pulse Townhouses Cluster 9 – Dubai South (Dubai South), 240 units
• Merano – Business Bay (Damac), 581 units
• The Pulse Boulevard Apartments (C2) – Dubai South (Dubai South), 171 units
• Boulevard Point – Downtown Dubai (Emaar), 509 units

Most expensive sales

Top apartment sales

1. AED 20,000,000 – Bluewaters Residences 9, Marsa Dubai
2. AED 17,000,000 – Palme Couture Residences, Palm Jumeirah
3. AED 12,809,700 – Bluewaters Residences 1, Marsa Dubai
4. AED 8,064,888 – The Address Residence Fountain Views 3, Downtown Dubai
5. AED 6,750,000 – Serenia Residences Building C, Palm Jumeirah

Top villa sales

1. AED 75,000,000 – Hadaeq Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid
2. AED 69,000,000 – Emirates Living
3. AED 18,000,000 – Palm Jumeirah
4. AED 17,400,000 – Al Merkadh
5. AED 13,801,000 – Al Mamzer

Notes on methodology

Scope. The headline totals and category table span every property category in the data, Plot and Building included. The primary/resale split, top-area rankings and year-on-year series take in Apartment, Villa and Commercial alone, so those numbers are intentionally smaller than the headline and should not be summed across sections.

Rounding. The headline totals are the definitive rounded figures. Category-level breakdowns are rounded on their own and may not add up precisely to the headline.

Definitions. Price figures are medians rather than averages. Year-on-year sets the period against the matching period twelve months earlier. All values in AED; areas in square feet.