Dubai’s real estate market uniquely balances the appeal of off‐plan properties—purchased before construction is complete—with the dynamics of the resale (or secondary) market, where these properties are later traded among investors or end-users. Over recent years, a notable evolution has emerged: resale prices for off-plan properties are now a lower percentage of the original developer sales prices compared to previous cycles.
Developer Sales vs. Resale Pricing
Historically, off-plan properties would often resell at close to their original developer prices, buoyed by strong market sentiment. Today, however, due to changes in demand, broader market corrections, and investors’ growing preference for ready-to-move-in properties, the resale value of off-plan units is typically 10–20% lower than the developer’s initial price. For instance, recent data shows that while primary (developer) sales in Dubai have reached an average of about AED 1,610 per square foot, the secondary market—where off-plan properties later trade—has averaged around AED 1,326 per square foot. This roughly 18% discount reflects a more cautious pricing environment amid evolving market fundamentals.
The trend is the same among all main areas in Dubai:
|
Apartments Comparison
Off-Plan Vs. Resale
|
| Areas |
Off Plan |
Resale |
Variation Percentage |
| Dubai (All) |
1,610 |
1,326 |
18% |
| Al Wasl |
3,015 |
2,281 |
24% |
| Downtown |
2,888 |
2,570 |
11% |
| Business Bay |
2,632 |
1,834 |
30% |
| Dubai Hills |
2,318 |
2,100 |
9% |
| Dubai Marina |
2,867 |
1,821 |
36% |
| Creek Harbour |
2,457 |
2,175 |
11% |
With this we not saying that the off-plan market is overvalued or the resale market is undervalued. It is related to the new design, amenities and branded residences that are moving the off-plan market to a higher level than the properties built 5 to 10 years ago, plus the payment plans as a key factor to not deploy the total value of the property.
Case Examples
Verve City Walk by Meraas
Verve City Walk is a prime example of a modern off-plan development. Initially launched by Meraas with developer prices on average, at AED 3.4 million, units in this project are now entering the resale market but there are no buyers willing to pay the premium resellers are asking. The market sentiment is not changing but the way investors used to make money by flipping properties after a few months is no longer an option. The resale market for off-plan properties does not take the same levels of premium it used to in the short term, yes close to the building completion.
Emaar Projects in Dubai Hills Estate
Emaar’s developments under construction in Dubai Hills Estate follow a similar trend. Although these projects are launched at attractive off-plan prices with appealing payment plans, the resale market now exhibits a discount when compared with original prices. The evolving market dynamics, including an increase in off-plan volume and a push by developers to offer extended payment plans, have contributed to resale values trading at a relatively lower percentage of the original sales prices than before. While specific figures for Dubai Hills aren’t always publicly detailed, the overall market data from the Dubai Land Department confirms that secondary transactions are generally trading at about 85% of primary prices.
Data from the Dubai Land Department
According to open-data reports by the Dubai Land Department, the real estate sales price indices reveal that:
- Approximately 59.6% of transactions occur in the secondary (ready-market) segment, with the remainder being off-plan sales.
- The average price per square foot in the primary market tends to be higher compared to the resale market—reflecting a roughly 15% discount in many cases.
This quantitative gap underscores a broader trend: while off-plan properties remain popular for their attractive payment plans and potential for capital appreciation, market corrections and increased supply in the secondary market have tempered resale prices relative to developer prices.
A Forward-Looking Perspective
In essence, the current relationship between off-plan and resale markets in Dubai is characterized by a widening price gap. Resale values for off-plan properties—exemplified by projects like Verve City Walk and Emaar’s Dubai Hills Estate developments—are now lower percentages of the original sale prices than in previous cycles. This is driven by market corrections, a shift toward “buy-and-hold” investor profiles, and evolving demand dynamics.
For investors and end-users, the outlook remains encouraging despite these adjustments. With Dubai’s regulatory environment, robust infrastructure investments, and continuous influx of international capital, both off-plan and resale segments present valuable opportunities—albeit with a more measured valuation framework moving forward.
By staying informed through transaction records from authoritative sources like the Dubai Land Department and leveraging expert insights on emerging trends, market participants can navigate this evolving landscape effectively and secure long-term returns.
This comprehensive view reflects the current state of Dubai’s real estate market—where off-plan properties continue to be a cornerstone of investment, even as their resale multiples adjust to reflect new market realities.